Cease-fire talk, and a failed rocket barrage

Posted on July 12, 2014 by Victor Rosenthal
Countdown timer to massive rocket barrage on Tel Aviv displayed on Hamas TV

Countdown timer to massive rocket barrage on Tel Aviv displayed on Hamas TV

As I write, Hamas TV is displaying a count-down timer to a promised massive barrage of more-powerful rockets (called J-80’s) against Tel Aviv. It will begin in about 5 minutes from now, at 9 PM Israel time.

News item:

As hostilities between the Hamas ruled Gaza Strip and Israel continued on day 5 of Israel’s Operation Protective Edge, talk of an emerging formula for a ceasefire began to be heard.

Various Arabic media outlets reported on Saturday that the ceasefire was being devised at the initiative of the Palestinians with Egypt and Qatar’s involvement, according to a Channel Two report. …

The Turkish Anadolu news agency reported on Saturday that Middle East Quartet Envoy Tony Blair met Saturday with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo to discuss ways to restore a 2012 Cairo-brokered ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. …

Reports differed on what would be included in a ceasefire agreement but some claimed it would include the release of Palestinian prisoners, opening the crossings into Gaza, and transferring funds to Gaza, Channel Two reported. …

Head of Meretz Zehava Gal-On on Saturday urged Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to involve Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in any effort to reach a ceasefire in Gaza.

Any Israeli who could seriously consider a cease-fire now is simply insane.

Israel was viciously attacked by a racist, genocidal enemy. She is successfully defending herself, and will break the enemy’s back if allowed to continue. The appropriate strategy for Israel is to intensify the air campaign — and if this requires looser strictures about collateral damage in order to more fully achieve the objective of castrating Hamas, so be it — and probably to launch a ground incursion. Hamas leaders should not be off-limits, either.

The description of the cease-fire terms is beyond ludicrous. These are terms of surrender for Israel. Normally, it’s the loser that surrenders.

As I write this, it’s after 9 PM in Israel and Hamas has launched its massive barrage of rockets at Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and other cities, most of which are being intercepted by Iron Dome or missing their targets. It is as if Hamas is begging to be hit harder.

Their strategy is hard to understand. Caroline Glick suggested that after its estrangement from Egypt and Syria, Hamas is making a bid for wider Arab/Muslim world support by being at war with Israel, traditionally an effective ploy. Keep in mind that Arabic language media — and some in other languages as well — are ‘reporting’ massive casualties in Gaza, and displaying pictures of dead children (in many cases, children from Syria, Iraq, Libya, etc.) allegedly killed by Israel. But it is not clear that the Arab world is prepared to go to the mat for Hamas this time.

Regardless, it seems to me that it has gone far beyond the point that Israel can accept anything less than what amounts to be the complete destruction of Hamas’ capability to make war. The economic and human costs of going to war every two years are enormous: every time Iron Dome takes out an incoming rocket, it fires two tamir interceptors, at a cost of about $10,000 each. And there is the cost of the reserve call-ups, the lost productivity, the damage when rockets do hit something, etc.

It is important that the termination of this conflict be a clear Israeli victory, both materially and psychologically. Hamas should come out of it without rockets or tunnels, humiliated, a laughingstock. The conflict will never be over — there will be new enemies, they are gathering strength even now — but Hamas will join all the other historical enemies of the Jewish people in oblivion.

I’m finished writing, and Hamas’ bragged-about rocket barrage is finished too, with no direct hits (except in Ramallah and Beit Lechem, where they managed to hit their own people). The Iron Dome performed remarkably well. The IDF Spokesperson is reporting that the launcher used to fire the rockets at Tel Aviv has been hit.

But the message was received in Jerusalem: a ground attack will be required. A cease-fire can wait.

Posted in War | 2 Comments

We have a normal state, not a perfect one

Posted on July 11, 2014 by Victor Rosenthal
Most of the delegates to Ha'aretz "peace conference" flee as sirens sound in Tel Aviv

Most of the delegates to Ha’aretz “peace conference” flee as sirens sound in Tel Aviv

The Oslo Syndrome — in part, the belief that it’s possible to overcome genocidal Jew-hatred by improving our own behavior — is insidious. It’s easy to fall into the trap, which in essence means internalizing the Jew-hater’s conception that it’s all our fault. How many times do you hear someone saying that the reason there’s no peace agreement with the PLO is that we are just not trying hard enough? That’s the Oslo syndrome.

Sometimes the syndrome is terminal. Ha’aretz writers Gideon Levy and Amira Hass compete to see who can demonize Israel more painfully. The Israeli Left wallows in feelings of guilt, even while the Palestinians try to murder them with rocket fire (see photo) along with other Israeli Jews.

But sometimes a usually reasonable person suffers a mild touch of the syndrome. While there’s no help for such as Levy or Hass, a dose of logic may cure someone who is not so far gone.

So, let’s provide one for Rabbi Daniel Gordis, a good Zionist who slipped this week when he wrote this:

We watched as they burned mosques, but never admitted that those who start by burning mosques will one day burn a child. A year ago, Vice Premier Moshe Ya’alon spoke out against Jewish terror, but we ignored him, or protested his “misguided” use of the word “terror.”

And then we burned a child. Yes, we.

Of course Bibi is right that we abhor the horror and they celebrate their murderers. Of course he’s right that we arrest the perpetrators and they name streets and city squares after them. Of course he’s right that we’re surrounded by an evil the world simply refuses to understand. Yes, that’s all true. But it’s also utterly irrelevant.

Moral equivalency makes a mockery of truth, but moral superiority makes a mockery of responsibility.

Being better than them is not good enough. “Not being revolting” is not a standard that will get our children to believe in this place. Either we build something that reflects the very best of what our tradition has stood for since those first walls were breached long ago, or we will exile ourselves – not because the walls were penetrated, but because the shame was simply too great to bear.

No, Rabbi Gordis, not “we.” What impossible standard are you trying to set for the state of Israel? A state with 7 million Jewish residents, and not one of them a murderer? This crime was not committed by anyone but the perpetrators, who are hooligans, the dregs of society — any society.

This wasn’t a ‘nationalistic’ crime. The murderers simply went out to kill an Arab, because they are the type of creature that likes to inflict pain on others, and their rage gave them a target for their evil natures. If the three Jewish boys hadn’t been murdered, perhaps they would have picked a fan of a rival football club. As I wrote before, the 99.999 percent of Jewish society who are not vicious hooligans spits them out. And they will certainly suffer the full force of the law.

There isn’t a single continuum that starts at “price-tag” graffiti and ends with murder. These are unrelated phenomena, done by different types of people for different motives. Both are morally wrong and practically stupid, and neither represents the spirit of the Jewish people or the will of the overwhelming majority of Israeli Jews. But they are not different expressions of the same thing.

In fact, the false idea that there is such a continuum, which begins with right-wing politicians like Naftali Bennett, passes through graffiti and ends in murder is a standard theme used by anti-Israel propagandists to demonize Israel and attack those like Bennett, who oppose concessions to the Arabs. Someone like Gordis should know better than to contribute to it.

I know there are ugly expressions from Israelis in social media. This is more about social media than Israel. Those of us who didn’t grow up with it are sometimes shocked, but there it is.

Herzl wanted a ‘normal’ Jewish state, with Jewish policemen and Jewish prostitutes. That’s what we got, and it includes stupid vandals and vicious murderers too. It is a real state, a practical state, not a perfect state. Our responsibility is to do our best to approach perfection, not to be perfect.

Gordis’ suggestion that “we will exile ourselves” from shame is excessive. What we will do is try to teach the basic principles of Jewish morality, including the idea that revenge against innocent representatives of an opposing group is wrong. And we will do our best to create the most moral state possible.

Posted in Terrorism | 3 Comments

Hamas commits war crimes, supporters complain about Israeli restraint

Posted on July 9, 2014 by Victor Rosenthal
Three members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket squad surgically eliminated by IDF

Three members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket squad surgically eliminated by IDF

It’s unbelievable (Adam Taylor, Washington Post):

For years, the Israeli military has been using cellphone calls and small “warning rockets” — usually sent from drones — to tell people which buildings it is targeting and give them time to get out. It’s a time-tested strategy for the Israeli military, and it even has a name: “roof knocking.” Even if its intentions are good, however, it is a controversial tactic. …

Some critics say the tactic amounts to psychological warfare. There are reports of “warnings” that are given but no bombing following. There are also instances in which a bombing is not preceded by a warning, or, worse still, the attack may mistakenly destroy the wrong target or produce wider collateral damage – always a risk in cramped areas such as Khan Younis. Human rights groups have argued that targeting the homes of militia members violates international humanitarian law, whether warnings are made or not.

Let’s come back to earth. Has any other country done anything remotely like this in the course of fighting a war? Is it reasonable that Hamas should fire rockets at civilian targets in Israel with the intent to kill as many Jews as possible, but Israel should be criticized for its attempts to avoid hurting non-combatants?

Compare to the US in Iraq, or the Russians anywhere!

As PM Netanyahu said today, Hamas is committing a “double war crime” by storing weapons in schools and hospitals, and firing rockets at Israeli civilians from heavily populated areas. They don’t try to hide it, and indeed they encourage their people to become human shields. Speaking on Hamas TV, a spokesperson explained that

The policy of people confronting the Israeli warplanes with their bare chests in order to protect their homes has proven effective against the occupation … Also, this policy reflects the character of our brave, courageous people. We in Hamas call upon our people to adopt this policy, in order to protect the Palestinian homes.

In parallel with the kinetic war we have the information war. Here Hamas and its supporters — including Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas — are trying to portray Israel’s relatively surgical operation as genocide. All kinds of bloody pictures, some from Syria, Libya, Lebanon, etc. are being posted on social media as ‘evidence’ of Israeli atrocities.

Abbas, who would be happier than a pig in mud to see Hamas wiped out, even went as far as to compare the murder of Mohammed Abu Khdeir by mentally disturbed football hooligans with “Auschwitz.” This isn’t really surprising from the guy who claimed in his doctoral dissertation that Zionists collaborated with Hitler to create a Holocaust — in order to get the survivors into Palestine!

Listening to Palestinian supporters, one would have no idea that the massive rocket barrage from Gaza began before Israel’s response, and that Israel held back for several days — while absorbing Palestinian rocket strikes — to see if Hamas would accept its offer of “quiet for quiet.”

They are also bringing back the accusation that Israel is using ‘disproportionate’ means to combat Hamas because this operation has seen (so far) 53 Palestinians killed and no Israelis. I will repeat again, as I did in 2008 and 2012, that this is nonsense. Proportionality has nothing to do with the relative number of casualties in a conflict. In international law, an army may use force proportionate to what is required to achieve its objective. The IDF’s objective here is to stop the rocket fire, and its restraint in avoiding collateral damage is far greater than customary among developed nations.

Palestinians think they have a ticket to ride called ‘resisting occupation’. Anything they do is legitimate, and anything the other side does is wrong. Reason, facts, logic and international law are all irrelevant for supporters of the Cause.

Posted in Israel and Palestinian Arabs, War | 4 Comments

The little war in Israel

Posted on July 8, 2014 by Victor Rosenthal
Five Hamas terrorists attempt to infiltrate Israel from the sea, are intercepted by the IDF

Right now, as I write this, Hamas missiles are being fired at Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and, of course, the usual targets in southern Israel. Some are being intercepted by Iron Dome systems, and others are exploding in fields, roads, and homes. In one incident, five Hamas fighters attempted to infiltrate Israel by sea, and were stopped before they could carry out their horrific mission. So far no Israelis have been killed, although there are reports of injuries. Millions of people are spending the night in shelters.

Prime Minister Netanyahu offered Hamas “quiet for quiet,” but Hamas chose to escalate. Now there are unconfirmed reports that — as Israel begins to bomb Hamas infrastructure in Gaza — that they are interested in a cease fire. Sure.

My daughter just described explaining to her pre-school children the need to run to shelter when there is an alarm. She is telling them simply that they have to follow instructions from the PM, who is the ‘commander’ of all of them. She is not saying anything about rockets or that someone is trying to kill them. My wife thinks it would be better to tell them a bit more, because they can surely see that people around them are afraid. I didn’t offer an opinion. I don’t have a clue how to explain this to children.

I was in Israel during the last rocket blitz, in November 2012. Both my son and son-in-law were called up for reserve duty. Private citizens, fathers, they are expecting orders again at any moment. This could be the last night for a while that they will sleep at home.

The IDF bombed Hamas targets in Gaza then, but stopped short of a ground invasion after a large buildup.  Since the call-up of reserves was estimated to cost about $6 million, I assume that it was aborted because of international (that is, US) pressure. The air and artillery bombardments in 2012 bought Israel less than 2 years of relative quiet.

The question today is how far to go. Options range all the way from accepting another cease-fire to invading and re-conquering all of Gaza.

It’s doubtful that Israel will retake Gaza. Nobody wants to do reserve duty patrolling its streets. On the other hand, the present situation in which Hamas is left alone to build up its forces until it believes that it can advance its declared mission — to kill Jews — is intolerable.

This is just not acceptable. It can’t be business as usual to kill Jews. It can’t be that Israel is allowed to have Iron Dome systems, etc., but not be permitted to take the war to its enemy. Israel needs at least to castrate Hamas, to destroy its ability to fight and to prevent it from rearming, so that the present situation cannot reoccur every few years.

Is that enough? I don’t know. This is the Middle East. Maybe the only way to win a war here and have it stay won is to treat your enemy like the biblical Amalek, and blot out his name from under heaven (Deut. 25:19). How would the Obama Administration react to that?

Posted in Israel and Palestinian Arabs, War | 2 Comments

A very bad weekend

Posted on July 6, 2014 by Victor Rosenthal
Vandalized tram station in Shuafat neighborhood, Jerusalem. Graffiti -- in Hebrew -- reads "death to Israel, death to Jews"

Vandalized tram station in Shuafat neighborhood, Jerusalem. Graffiti — in Hebrew — reads “death to Israel, death to Jews”

It looks from here like a really bad weekend in Israel. Some 40-odd rockets were fired from Gaza at southern Israel within 48 hours, as far as Beersheva. Arabs rioted throughout the country, throwing rocks and firebombs at any available Jewish target. They systematically destroyed the light rail tracks, stations and equipment in Arab neighborhoods of Jerusalem, which were supposedly a symbol of coexistence in the capital.

The murderers of the three Jewish boys are still at large, and — oh yes — the police have made arrests in the case of Muhammad Abu Khdeir, the Arab boy who had gasoline poured over him, and was burned alive. The three suspects are Jews. No further details have been released as yet.

The cold-blooded depravity of this crime makes it stand out, even in the context of the Jewish-Arab conflict. I would happily put a noose on the necks of the killers myself (I would feel this way whether they were Jews or Arabs). The fact — assuming that it is determined that they are guilty — that Jews did this is shocking.

If they are convicted, they will rot in prison. There will be no prisoner exchanges, and they will not be considered heroes. Soccer fields will not be named after them, and the Israeli government won’t pay them and their families a ‘salary’ for their service to the state. The Jewish people will spit them out in shame.

There are many differences between the way we will respond to this terrorist crime and the way Arabs respond to acts of terrorism committed by Arabs. I am not in the mood to write about that now, just to express my sorrow to Abu Khdeir’s family.

Posted in Terrorism | 3 Comments

Limited war with Hamas, again?

Posted on July 4, 2014 by Victor Rosenthal

PM Netanyahu, today:

We are ready for two options in the south. If the fire toward our towns in the south ceases, then so shall our actions and the calm in the south since Operation Pillar of Defense [November 2012] will continue. The second option is that fire toward our residents in the south continues and then our reinforced troops there will act forcefully. The security of our citizens comes first.

Pillar of Defense included an intensive air campaign, which seriously degraded Hamas’ capabilities. While preparations were made for a massive ground invasion including a very expensive call-up of reserves, in the end the troops did not go in. It is difficult to believe that so much money would have been spent on a bluff, so it’s reasonable to speculate that the operation was aborted due to international pressure.

Operation Cast Lead, which began in December 2008 and ended in January 2009, also included air operations followed by a ground invasion of peripheral parts of the Gaza Strip. The third phase of Cast Lead, which was not carried out — after officials of the incoming Obama Administration almost certainly ordered then-Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni to have the IDF out of Gaza before the inauguration of the President — would have had the army entering Gaza City and rooting out Hamas from its warren of tunnels under mosques, hospitals, schools, etc.

In each case the operations ended in a truce in which Hamas promised to maintain quiet in return for being left in peace. And in each case Hamas used the peace to rebuild its fortifications (with cement imported for ‘humanitarian’ purposes) and command/control systems, build more underground rocket launchers and of course stock up on bigger and better missiles. Now, as before, Hamas has found it profitable to ramp up its rocket fire on southern Israel.

What is different today is that Hamas believes that it has acquired a deterrent capability of its own in the form of long-range missiles which can theoretically cause significant damage and casualties in Israel’s population centers. Hamas thinks that this threat will prevent Israel from taking more serious steps like assassinating Hamas leaders, heavily bombing its facilities (which, you will recall, are surrounded by human shields), or entering the Strip with ground troops.

On the other hand, Israel sees that Hamas has emerged stronger from each of the previous truces. Sooner or later its long-range missiles will either be destroyed or used. They will not rust away. It’s always better to have a war on your terms than on the enemy’s. If they are getting stronger, fight them sooner. And so forth.

If Israel has allowed Hamas to develop a true deterrent capability, that would constitute a very serious failure of the government and military. One hopes that there is good intelligence concerning the types, locations and numbers of these missiles, and that in the event the conflict escalates, it would be possible to limit the damage that they could do to an ‘acceptable’ amount.

I think the missile threat can’t be ignored, but on the other hand the capability demonstrated in 2012 was very rudimentary. I believe that Hamas’ bragging is just that.

My guess is that an air campaign combined with incursions by special operations troops targeting underground installations could end Hamas’ dream of a deterrent.

This could be a limited operation or it could expand to the point of overthrowing the Hamas government, even including killing top officials. In that case, there would have to be a prior agreement with the Palestinian Authority or Egypt to take control, something that would be complicated to arrange (and who knows if they would want it). For this reason, I don’t expect this.

There would certainly be IDF casualties from any operation and probably casualties on the home front from missiles that do get through. And thanks to Hamas’ use of human shields, civilian Arab casualties are certain. On the other hand, a future confrontation — perhaps after Iran has achieved nuclear status — could be worse.

The best option seems to be to attack Hamas now, while Hizballah and the various factions fighting in Syria and Iraq are otherwise occupied, before Iran acquires nuclear weapons, and while the regimes in Egypt and Jordan are if not friendly at least not openly hostile.

The greatest obstacle is the Obama Administration, which would try to prevent Israel from seriously hurting Hamas (I know, it is hard to understand, but there it is).

Bibi has given Hamas a couple of days to stop rocket attacks. Either Hamas will back down and the uneasy truce will continue until the pressure builds up again, or — and I’m expecting this — there will a limited operation which will not overthrow Hamas, but will seriously weaken it. And then the cycle will repeat.

Posted in Terrorism, US-Israel Relations, War | 2 Comments

Palestinians tell us who they are

Posted on July 3, 2014 by Victor Rosenthal
Arab youth expressing their 'Palestinian' identity

Arab youth expressing their ‘Palestinian’ identity

I’ve said on numerous occasions that the ‘Palestinian people’ only exist as a distinct people by virtue of their opposition to the Jewish presence in the land of Israel.

What makes these Arabs, whose ancestors mostly came from Syria or Egypt in the 19th or 20th centuries ‘Palestinian’ is that they have dedicated themselves to the struggle against the Jews. There is very little ‘Palestinian’ content to their culture apart from their aspiration to destroy Israel.

It isn’t surprising, then, that they won’t compromise on their demands for a right of return, stop the vicious incitement in their media, or recognize Israel as a Jewish state. These acts would contradict their identity as ‘Palestinians’.

This isn’t just my little right-wing conceit. The Palestinians themselves agree. The official Facebook page of Fatah, Yasser Arafat’s original gang which now dominates the PLO and the Palestinian Authority, proudly published this bit of poetry yesterday (thanks to Palestinian Media Watch for the translation):

“My mother taught me that my stone is my weapon;
that I am Palestinian only through my struggle;
she taught me to shout that this is my land, so get out!”
[Facebook, “Fatah – The Main Page”, July 2, 2014]

I couldn’t say it any better.

Posted in Israel and Palestinian Arabs | Comments Off on Palestinians tell us who they are

Kerry rushes to judgment

Posted on July 2, 2014 by Victor Rosenthal
Mohammad Hussein Abu Khdeir

Muhammad Hussein Abu Khdeir

John Kerry, today:

The United States condemns in the strongest possible terms the despicable and senseless abduction and murder of Muhammad Hussein Abu Khdeir. It is sickening to think of an innocent 17 year old boy snatched off the streets and his life stolen from him and his family. There are no words to convey adequately our condolences to the Palestinian people.

The authorities are investigating this tragedy, a number of Israeli and Palestinian officials have condemned it, and Prime Minister Netanyahu has been emphatic in calling for all sides “not to take the law into their own hands”. Those who undertake acts of vengeance only destabilize an already explosive and emotional situation. We look to both the Government of Israel and the Palestinian Authority to take all necessary steps to prevent acts of violence and bring their perpetrators to justice. The world has too often learned the hard way that violence only leads to more violence and at this tense and dangerous moment, all parties must do everything in their power to protect the innocent and act with reasonableness and restraint, not recrimination and retribution.

Secretary Kerry, please keep the following in mind:

There is as yet no evidence that Abu Khdeir was murdered by Jews, except the statement by his uncle that Palestinian witnesses “were able to identify the attackers as Jews.” It would be interesting to know exactly how they did this.

The police at present have no idea who did it or why. It has not even been determined that the person reported to have been abducted is the same as the one who was found dead.

Numerous possibilities are being investigated, such as a criminal connection, clan feud, or honor killing, as well as Jewish revenge. If it does turn out to be a criminal act, it would not be the first time an Arab teenager was murdered by Arabs.

On the other hand, if this murder was committed by Jewish extremists, then I am certain that 99% of Israelis, from the Prime Minister on down, will be shocked and disgusted. And if Jews are arrested and found guilty of this crime, they will surely receive heavy sentences, as they should.

But Mr. Secretary, your statement very strongly implies that this was an “act of vengeance,” something we are not in a position to know at this point.

You waited several days after the kidnapping of the three Jewish boys to issue a hedged statement. This one may prove to have come a bit too soon.

Posted in Israel and Palestinian Arabs, Terrorism | Comments Off on Kerry rushes to judgment