Barack Obama and the twilight of the West

So Barack Obama has got his agreement, his legacy. There will be debate and a vote (or votes) taken in the US Congress, but even if the Congress passes a resolution that disapproves the deal, and even in the unlikely event that such a resolution survives a presidential veto, the horse is out of the barn. The US is only one of the Western parties to the deal, which will likely receive the backing of a UN Security Council resolution. Who would enforce continued sanctions?

I’m not going to enumerate all the reasons this is a bad deal on a global scale (you can read about some of them here). What I wonder is why Obama and his people pushed for it. Did they think at first that they could get an agreement that would moderate Iran’s behavior and hold back their nuclear project, and then found themselves suckered by Iran’s negotiators? Or were they going for something entirely different?

As an Israeli, I can’t see anything good in the deal, and both Israel’s government and opposition agree with me (although the opposition is somewhat comically trying to blame the Prime Minister for it). But looking at it from an American point of view, what were they thinking?

One explanation is sheer incompetence. I suppose this is possible, especially since John Kerry is involved, but it’s not terribly interesting. What other explanations are there?

Another is the one I suggested in “Breakdown and Betrayal:” they were following the Iraq Study Commission recommendations to buy the friendship of the Arab and Iranian troublemakers in the Middle East by giving them Israel. This is certainly part of it, especially for Obama, who I am convinced would like nothing better than another Arab state in the place of Israel.

But there’s one other – even worse – possibility: that the deal represents a way to cover a strategic withdrawal from the Middle East. Could it be that the administration has decided that the US can’t successfully confront Iran in any case, and the deal exists to put a pleasant face on the American surrender?

Iran has staked its claim. It wants to establish a Shiite caliphate to dominate the Middle East (and much of the world’s oil supply). It wants US influence out of the region. It wants Israel gone. Its long-term ambitions may well be much greater.

No prior administration would have accepted that. But apparently Obama and his advisors have convinced themselves that they can live with an Iranian Middle East. At least, they think, it will solve the problem of ISIS. And – very importantly – perhaps they have convinced themselves that they do not have the power to stop it.

But isn’t it true that sanctions brought Iran to the verge of capitulation? Supposedly its financial straits brought the regime to the table. All that would be needed would be to keep the pressure on.

I disagree, and I think the administration does too. What happened was that despite the sanctions, Iran managed to develop its nuclear program almost to completion. It was simply a matter of reallocating resources, and the totalitarian Iranian regime had the power to do that indefinitely, despite the pain it caused the population. What could the people do, vote for the opposition?

What brought Iran to the table was not economic pressure, but the opportunity presented by the Obama Administration, which was anxious to shed its obligations in the Middle East. The administration understood that only a credible threat of military action could stop Iran, and it was not prepared to make such a threat – because it might have to carry it out. And it was not prepared to pay the price for that.

The mighty USA, the nation with the largest GDP and military budget in the world, a nation that possesses thousands of deliverable nuclear warheads and massive conventional forces, could crush Iran in a matter of days or weeks. But the consequences would include some casualties, a huge bump in the price of oil, and terrorist attacks against American interests all over the globe, perhaps even the homeland. Don’t forget that while America is a superpower in many ways, it is a soft target. And in the field of terrorism, Iran is the superpower.

This explains why the negotiations proceeded as they did. The West wasn’t holding the high cards – the Iranians were.

Obama, who is ideologically opposed to coercion by the West in any event, simply does not see that continued US influence in the Middle East is worth the cost. So he’ll make the best of his weakness, give Iran what it wants without a struggle, and contract the sphere of influence of the US a little. So what if it means that the corrupt House of Saud goes down the drain, and the Jewish state of Israel – which he believes should never have been created in the first place – is lost as well?

One can only imagine the consequences. A newly empowered Iran would push the boundaries of its caliphate in all directions. Russia and China have spheres of influence to think about too, and would rush to fill the vacuum created by a withdrawing United States. Everyone that could get nuclear weapons, would. Muslim supremacists in Europe and elsewhere would be encouraged.

Obama could cut military budgets even further and stop droning ISIS and other terrorists – the Shiite militias will take care of that for him. He could play Cyrus to the ‘Palestinians’, bringing them ‘back’ to their ‘homeland’ at last. He could reopen the US Embassy in Teheran and build one in al-Quds, ‘Palestine’.

Yes, Barack Obama could be the third world hero that he has always envisaged himself as, revered like Martin Luther King or Nelson Mandela. Only, his importance would be even greater than theirs.

He would go down in history as the man that finally brought about the end of the Pax Americana, the twilight of the West.

Posted in Iran | 1 Comment

Obama’s policy is as unrealistic as Bush’s, but more dangerous

“You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor and you will have war.” – Winston S. Churchill

American policy toward the Middle East in the past two administrations has been disastrous. Maybe I’m missing something, indulging my historical hindsight or being dense myself, but it looks to me that nonpartisan ignorance and poor planning are the rule in Washington.

The Bush Administration kicked off the debacle by ending the “dual containment” policy of sanctions and restraints on both Iran and Iraq by overthrowing Saddam Hussein. Saddam was a murderous thug who well deserved hanging, but the vacuum created by his removal and the breakup of his Sunni-dominated army could not be filled, as Bush apparently believed, with a democratic regime.

Instead, multiple factions went at each others’ throats, including Shiite militias (some aligned with Iran and some not), Baathists, Sunnis (some aligned with al-Qaeda and some not), Kurds, etc. Iran, Syria and Gulf-supported Jihadists vied for influence, provided weapons and pulled strings. Today, 12 years after the invasion of Iraq, it has become a failed state, wracked by violence as pro-Iranian militias vie with ISIS for control.

Bush did not understand the complexity of the situation or the intentions of the various players. He naively believed that any person would naturally prefer a free society to a totalitarian one in which his group was on top; and he didn’t realize that in the Middle East, the most violent and ruthless party usually prevails. Instead of a democratic Iraq that would anchor Western interests in the Middle East, he got chaos.

But Obama made it worse. If there was any hope of stabilizing Iraq in 2009, it was ended by his announcement that the US would withdraw all troops from Iraq by the next year. By the end of 2011, only a handful remained.

The Obama Administration, faced with the threat of the ISIS on the one hand, and the inexorable march of Iran toward regional hegemony on the other, made a cynical decision to throw in with the gang that looks the most like a winner. Here there is no naïve faith in democracy. Instead, there is a naïve faith in the efficacy of appeasement.

The decision to tilt toward Iran (and by extension to protect Iranian ally Bashar al Assad in Syria) flies in the face of common sense. Iran has been an enemy of the US for religious, ideological and geopolitical reasons since its Islamic revolution in 1979. From the US Embassy hostage crisis, through the terrorist attacks of the 1980’s (including the one that took the lives of 241 US Marines in Beirut) and the Khobar Towers bombing in 1995 that killed 19 Americans, to providing explosives to al-Qaeda to bomb US embassies in Africa and manufacturing sophisticated IEDs to be used against American troops in Iraq, the Iranian regime has been waging war against the US via its terrorist proxies from the start.

Iranian propaganda against the US and the West has been unrelenting. As nuclear negotiators in Vienna (in the words of Omri Ceren) “slouch toward a deal,” Iran observed its annual “al-Quds [Jerusalem] Day,” with chants of “death to America,” and “death to Israel,” burning flags and effigies of President Obama and PM Netanyahu. The ‘moderate’ Iranian President Rouhani took part in the festivities. And the Iranian ‘Supreme Leader’ Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said yesterday that the struggle against the US would continue regardless of any agreement that might be reached.

Despite all this, despite the apocalyptic religious beliefs of the Ayatollahs, despite the aggressive, expansionist moves of Iran to take over Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, and the concrete threats to Israel and Saudi Arabia, the Obama Administration has consistently capitulated to Iranian demands. Instead of increasing economic and diplomatic pressure on Iran to stop both its support of terrorism and its nuclear weapons program, it has chosen to try to appease Iran, to provide sanctions relief in return for apparent limitations on its nuclear activities that are not limitations in fact.

The Obama Administration seems to think – this is the most generous possible understanding of its behavior – that Iran can be moderated. If it is given what it wants in the Middle East (and this apparently includes the ability to produce atomic bombs), then it will reach an equilibrium with the West and end its hostility. There is, unfortunately, not a scrap of evidence that supports this hypothesis.

Israel, for its part, can’t afford to let the US test it. It won’t tolerate nuclear weapons in the hands of a near neighbor that calls for its destruction several times a day. This puts it directly in opposition to the administration. The administration claims that the only alternative to appeasing Iran is war. The truth, as Churchill said, is that the result of appeasement is war. It turns out that the one major obstacle to Obama’s carrying out his plans is Israel. Interesting how we end up at the center of the world again.

It’s worth noting that not only does this policy abandon former allies, it shreds the nuclear nonproliferation treaty which, you may recall, Iran signed. But what nation will now take its responsibilities under the treaty seriously now? The Saudi bomb is next. Of course, this is the same guy who said that chemical weapons are absolutely unacceptable, unless of course they are chlorine, which isn’t really a weapon, or maybe it isn’t a chemical, or maybe they are no Jews involved so who cares.

While the United States and the West are under attack by radical Islam in various forms, Barack Obama has chosen to embrace the most powerful and so far successful champion of radical Islam as an ally – despite its stated desire to defeat and destroy the US.

Although the policies of both Bush and Obama are based on ignorance of the realities of the Middle East, Obama’s is remarkable for its likely consequences. It deliberately strengthens an enemy without gaining anything in return, betrays allies, encourages proliferation of the most terrible weapons, encourages terrorism and will probably lead to war.

What a deal!

Posted in Iran | 2 Comments

The lost tribe of America

My post about Michael Oren and American Jews last week brought many comments and emails. Some liked it, but the ones that didn’t either didn’t like my tone (“bitter, negative, polarized”) or felt that I was being unfair to those who did continue to support Israel.

I’m sorry about the tone, but I can’t pretend I don’t feel strongly about this. While I’m not happy that otherwise nice Scandinavians don’t support us, it hurts much more when unfair criticism comes from our own people. And I should note that there are some American Jews that really do care about Israel, who work hard to counteract anti-Israel propaganda and to inform and influence policymakers about issues that are critical for us. But they are a minority.

There were several things that came between me and much of the US Jewish community. In short, I think my problems with Jews are symptomatic of a major change that has happened on the left side of American politics in the past two decades or so: the replacement of liberalism by what is called ‘progressivism’, but is really a doctrinaire leftism that incorporates elements of the so-called “post-modern/post-colonial” worldview. Jews, as is ever so, are in the vanguard of this movement, and it is these Jews with whom I came into conflict.

I admit to having strong opinions about some things that go against the ‘progressive’ narrative about Israel: I think Israel needs to hold on to Judea and Samaria for security reasons, because it is the spiritual and historical heartland of the Jewish people, and because we are wholly justified in this by international law. I think that the problem that the Arabs refuse to accept a Jewish presence between the river and the sea needs a solution, but that it won’t be found by expelling Jews. It’s an Arab problem, not a Jewish one.

So if this position puts me out of the mainstream, I can understand that not everyone agrees with me. What I found hard to accept was that they refused even to listen. Again, there were exceptions, but in so many cases the response was not to dispute or debate me but to try to shut me up. That was problem one.

Problem two was Barack Obama.

Almost immediately after his inauguration, when President Obama made the notorious speech in Cairo that explicitly validated the Palestinian historical narrative, I realized that, like Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz, we were not in Kansas anymore. This was not the pragmatism of Bill Clinton or the liberalism of Lyndon Johnson or Adlai Stevenson; instead, there were echoes of Edward Said. And as Obama’s contempt for our state and our Prime Minister became clearer and his Mideast policies worse, I became more and more critical.

But most progressive Jews, many of whom had worked in his campaign, didn’t want to hear anything negative about “their President.” Especially in social media, reactions to criticism of administration policies were vicious, often including accusations of racism. The discussion ended once the question of Obama or his policies came up.

It wasn’t that we disagreed; it was that no communication was possible.

I don’t expect them to pop out of their mother’s wombs quoting Jabotinsky because of their Jewish DNA. But this wasn’t just a political disagreement. We were starting from wholly different premises, living inside different conceptual schemes.

There is a certain minimum degree of – dare I say it? – tribal attachment that traditionally characterized Jews. It’s a starting point for discussion. And they don’t have it.

A person with a tribal attachment would at least listen to a pro-Israel view because it would be important to them. He or she would be open to talk about the idea of Jewish peoplehood, the idea that there is value in the preservation of a distinct Jewish people, and that a Jewish state may be essential to it and be worth defending.

This attachment has all but disappeared among liberal or ‘progressive’ Jews. And I blame the doctrinaire leftism I mentioned above. It is responsible for both the demise of Jewish tribalism, and the obsession with race that has seized left-of-center dialogue today.

A basic principle of this ideology is that there are oppressed groups and oppressors (often called ‘people of color’ and ‘whites’). The greatest sin is racism, which is the mistreatment of people of color by whites. This actually has little or nothing to do with race: Jews are considered white, while Arabs, their genetic cousins, are ‘people of color’. Any criticism of a person of color by a white is suspect, which explains the sensitivity to my objections to Obama Administration policies.

It is seen as a form of racism for whites to behave tribally to any extent, although people of color are permitted to do so (thus Israel is described as an ‘apartheid state’, while the insistence of Mahmoud Abbas on a racially pure ‘Palestine’ is considered unexceptional). Jewish protesters who said the mourner’s kaddish for Palestinian victims of one of the Gaza wars did it to embarrass those of us who (tribally) care more for our own than for our enemies. Can you imagine Arabs mourning dead IDF soldiers?

Liberal American Jews have taken this to heart. Their tribalism has been stamped out. They are embarrassed to feel that there is anything special or worth preserving about Jewish peoplehood. They like Jewish food, Jewish summer camp, Jewish music, etc. But they don’t see themselves as part of a people, a distinct unit with a connection to biblical times. They have been taught that there’s something ugly, even racist, about this idea.

As a result, the best that can be expected from them is indifference, and the worst the wholesale acceptance of the Israel-as-colonial-oppressor narrative. As one of my correspondents said, “Israel is just another foreign country to them.” And it is frustrating to tribal people like Oren and myself when they just don’t care. But why should we expect them to?

Nevertheless, the tribal feeling exists elsewhere. Most Israelis, religious or secular, feel it, and most observant Jews anywhere feel it. Michael Oren obviously does. Unless carried to extremes, it is a positive force. It is what built the Jewish state, and will guarantee its continued existence. Who volunteers for a combat unit in the IDF because they see themselves as citizens of the world?

Tribalism may be out of fashion, but it may also be necessary for our collective survival. Since Korach, Jews have been easy prey to seduction by the Left. Will American Jewry suffer the same fate as Korach?

Posted in American Jews | 5 Comments

Breakdown and betrayal

US Secretary of State John Kerry with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif

US Secretary of State John Kerry with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif

John Kerry in Vienna:

It’s now time to see whether or not we are able to close an agreement … But I want to be absolutely clear with everybody, we are not yet where we need to be on several of the most difficult issues. …

This negotiation could go either way. If hard choices get made in the next couple of days and made quickly, we could get an agreement this week. But if they are not made, we will not.

Either Mr. Kerry is in the grips of a historic self-delusion, or he thinks we are remarkably stupid.

Of course they will be able to “close an agreement.” The Western powers, led by the US, have found a way to creatively surrender on every major issue so far. Why should the remaining hurdles be too high for them?

I can imagine the chuckling among Iranian officials as they watch Western negotiators scurrying around trying to find a way to meet Khamenei’s latest dictats without looking too submissive.

It isn’t a secret any more. Kerry’s instructions are to make a deal and to make it look good, no matter what. We get it. Americans have short memories, and by the time things hit the fan, Obama will be on a high-priced speaking tour and Kerry will be spending his days aboard his yacht on Nantucket Sound.

I think the Iranians understand that they have little to fear from the US, unless the next election brings in a vastly different kind of administration. But by then it will be too late to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear-armed power.

In Israel, which is not invited to the negotiating table and has to live almost next door to Iran, there isn’t space or time for self-delusion. PM Netanyahu said “what’s coming out of the nuclear talks in Vienna is not a breakthrough, it’s a breakdown.”

It’s also a betrayal. This is felt very strongly here, where – despite the historically spotty nature of US support – the US is probably the most beloved of countries. Michael Oren, an American-Israeli, wrote painfully that Obama had “abandoned” Israel. But that isn’t a correct formulation. Obama was never with Israel; he was always with the Muslim world and particularly the Palestinian Arabs. What has happened is that Obama and his team are trying to get America to abandon Israel.

In this they are following the playbook written by James A. Baker and Lee Hamilton, the 2006 Iraq Study Commission Report, which asserted that “the United States will not be able to achieve its goals in the Middle East unless the United States deals directly with the Arab-Israeli conflict,” and called for “a renewed and sustained commitment by the United States” to bring about an Israeli withdrawal from Judea and Samaria and the Golan heights. The report also called for creation of a Palestinian state and engagement with Iran.

The idea seems to have been that if the US made Assad and Iran happy, then they might help the US disengage from Iraq. Simply put, the thesis was that the US needs the Muslim world a lot more than it needs Israel, and its support can be bought by sacrificing Israel. Obama has taken this idea to heart, and combined it with his own personal pro-Palestinian bias, nourished by his mentors Edward Said and PLO activist Rashid Khalidi.

Obama’s 2009 Cairo speech, in which he addressed the Muslim world, was written by Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes, both an architect of and a spokesman for Obama’s radical Middle East policy. In 2011, “Mr. Rhodes urged Mr. Obama to withdraw three decades of American support for President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt.”

Today, he is aggressively campaigning for the Iran deal (I also suspect him of being the source of the notorious remark to Jeffrey Goldberg in October 2014 that PM Netanyahu is “a chickenshit,” a hypothesis supported by White House visitor logs). Rhodes was an assistant to Lee Hamilton and a staff member of the Iraq Study Commission.

I’m sure that nothing annoys Obama supporters more than the suggestion that we are facing a clash of civilizations between Muslims and the West. Unfortunately it’s true. The situation is enormously complicated, with countless factions and sub-factions of ethnic and religious groups fighting for control in places where conservative regimes that enforced stability have fallen apart — sometimes thanks to the stupid policies of Western nations, such as Iraq and Egypt. But one thing that unites most of them is hatred for the West.

Those conservative regimes may have been brutal and anti-democratic, but as we’ve learned, the alternative in most places isn’t liberal democracy; it’s worse brutality. Obama’s answer is to empower Iran to take control of the region. Can’t be worse than ISIS, right?

But Iran’s regime is revolutionary and expansionist. It is fundamentally opposed to Western, and especially American, culture and ideology – what else can you say about a country where “death to America” is chanted regularly at demonstrations and even sessions of its parliament? Like ISIS, it has a millenialist ideology that calls for regional and ultimately world domination.

The regime may not be as in-your-face-brutal as ISIS, but its objective is similar. And it is much more competent. It sees America as an enemy that must and will be overcome. A policy based on appeasement will only help it obtain its goals while projecting weakness and engendering contempt. Placing nuclear weapons in its hands is both suicidal and abetting murder.

A really good policy would be much more complicated and difficult. It would involve selectively supporting democratic and conservative forces, like the Iranian opposition and the al-Sisi regime, the Kurds, Israel, etc. It would mean intervention, maybe even military intervention, to prevent nuclear proliferation.

It might not succeed. But at least it isn’t guaranteed to fail.

Posted in Iran, Islam, US-Israel Relations | 1 Comment

Michael Oren is tired of American Jews, and so am I

Rabbi Eric Yoffie is offended by Michael Oren, on behalf of (non-Orthodox) American Jews. These Jews, like America’s “first Jewish president,” turn out to be very easy to offend: just suggest that Israelis are more qualified than they are to decide the future of their country.

Oren’s new book has offended both Yoffie and the Obama Administration, which has launched an all-out media blitz against him (as far as I know, Obama spokespeople haven’t called him a ‘chickenshit’ yet, but give them time).

Obama is angry because Oren has exposed the fact (which Obama believes he had managed to hide) that despite his words to the contrary, he could not care less about Israel’s security; the empowerment of Iran and the partition of Israel to create a ‘Palestinian’ state take priority over our survival. And I might add that it doesn’t help Obama’s case when Oren describes the way he and his surrogates have treated our country and our Prime Minister with contempt since day one back in 2009.

But what about the liberal Jews that Yoffie represents? He explains:

What actually happened, according to the book, is that Michael Oren came to see American Jews as unreliable in their support of Israel, quick to criticize the Jewish state, and unable to appreciate Israel’s vulnerabilities. In his eyes, they were unsure of their own position in America. This made them incurable do-gooders, forever babbling about Tikkun Olam, and more inclined to help others than their own. To Oren’s dismay, the harder he worked, the more critical of Israel the community became. …

“I could not help questioning whether American Jews really felt as secure as they claimed [Oren writes]. Perhaps persistent fears of anti-Semitism impelled them to distance themselves from Israel and its often controversial policies. Maybe that was why so many of them supported Obama, with his preference for soft power, his universalist White House seders, and aversion to tribes.”

This, then, is Michael Oren’s message: American Jews flee from commitment to Israel and the controversies that Israel provokes. They prefer weakness to strength, the universal to the particular, and the weak-willed Democrats to the stand-tall Republicans. And the reason for all of this is not conviction but fear — fear for their well-being in America and fear of the anti-Semitism that lurks beneath the surface.

He continues,

Oren’s words here say nothing about the pride, power, and toughness of the American Jewish community. They say nothing about how indispensable American Jews remain to Israel’s standing in America. They say nothing about the relative cohesion of American Jews at times of war and crisis in Israel. And they say nothing about the obvious fact that disagreements between American Jews and Israel are natural and flow mostly from the same questions of politics and values that divide Israelis from one another. … [H]e gave us a book dripping with contempt.

I must say that I can feel for Michael Oren, because I was in almost the same position in my last few years in the US. No, I wasn’t the ambassador, but I was deeply involved in pro-Israel activism and the Jewish community. I was the treasurer of our local Jewish Federation, and my wife was the president of the Hadassah chapter (more than once). We stood on street corners in small groups facing huge anti-Israel demonstrations every time Israel was forced to defend herself. We went to meetings, lectures and films put on by the well-organized anti-Israel groups and distributed our material. We obtained speakers, showed films, and held panel discussions. We thought it was important for American Jews to support Israel, because if we didn’t, who would?

We tried to bring the local Jewish community – the organizations, the synagogues and individual Jews – along with us. With a few exceptions, mostly people like us who had lived in Israel or had relatives there, we had to drag them kicking and screaming. Most of our pro-Israel events drew the same few supporters.

The local Reform temple was probably the most frustrating. A film critical of J Street, followed by a discussion? Absolutely not, it would be ‘divisive’! The Jewish Federation and Hadassah were better, but it was always easier to organize an event about Jewish culture than Israel.

Is Oren right that American Jews are more interested in helping others than their own? Certainly they were far more upset about terrorism in Charleston than Jerusalem, and far more ready to criticize our Prime Minister than their own administration. The Reform rabbi threw himself into activities to help the poor and homeless. He is seen on TV on panels with the Imam of the Islamic Cultural Center. He is an outspoken advocate of liberal causes, but he did not give a sermon in favor of PM Netanyahu’s speech about Iran before the Congress.

Is it because of fear of anti-Semitism? I can’t say, and Oren exposes himself to quibbles when he speculates about motives. But the sheer obtuseness of Jews who insist on calling for an utterly impossible “two-state solution” despite the other side’s willingness to kill and die to prevent our keeping a state within any borders, and the ones that supported and still continue to support the administration’s Iran policy (which even Yoffie calls “profoundly mistaken and dangerous”) despite overwhelming evidence against it make me wonder. What drives their irrational attitudes?

Why was it that even after we showed them that J Street was funded by the anti-Zionist George Soros and received contributions from people associated with Saudi Arabia and Iran, they continued to support J Street? Why was it that they continued to contribute to the New Israel Fund after we showed them that some of its grantees advocated BDS and some called for the “de-Zionisation” of Israel?

Oren admits that he despaired of trying to win over US Jews. Just this week I heard a veteran American pro-Israel activist say that she was going to concentrate on building non-Jewish support, because working with people who can’t be persuaded by facts is a waste of time.

Yoffie is wrong about the “cohesion of American Jews at times of war and crisis in Israel.” They didn’t cohere when we needed them for counter-demonstrations during Cast Lead, and they haven’t cohered against Obama’s plan to empower Iran with nuclear weapons. If not now, when?

And he is wrong when he says that the disagreements about Israel in the US are similar to those among Israelis: in Israel, the great majority of Israelis agree that negotiations with the PLO are fruitless, that Gaza must continue to be blockaded, and that the US-Iran deal is a disaster. Yes, there are sharp political disagreements, but except for the extremists (the small academic/media/artistic Left) the disagreements are about personalities, style and domestic economic issues.

In a recent interview, Oren repeated the joke about two Jews who are about to be murdered by the SS. When one of them refuses to be blindfolded, the other tells him “don’t make trouble.”

American Jews don’t want to make trouble. They want to be like their non-Jewish liberal friends, with whom they complain about those troublesome settlements and that stubborn, ungrateful Netanyahu. They get a warm feeling from saying that they support “their” president. It makes them feel good about themselves to say that “Palestinians have rights, too.”

And if the war that results from Obama’s destabilizing policy ends up killing a lot of us, they will be sorry it happened, but they will read with approval in the NY Times that it was our fault for not “making peace” when we had the chance.

Posted in American Jews | 2 Comments

We’re not on the verge of war — yet

Someone recently asked me if I thought we would be at war again soon. Not just Gaza, but the big one — Hizballah and Iran. As the West’s red lines crumble, it’s a forgone conclusion that Iran can have a bomb as soon as they wish; and with President Obama rushing to relieve sanctions and unfreeze Iranian assets, the regime will have all the money it needs to fund its aggression, nuclear and non-nuclear.

So what is Israel going to do about it? After all, I don’t think the traditional position of the Israeli government that it will not allow any of its regional enemies to obtain nuclear weapons has changed.

There are good reasons not to attack Iran today. Most of Iran’s deterrent rests with its expeditionary force, Hizballah in Lebanon. Although Israel would very much like to pull the fangs of this particular snake, Hizballah has entwined its rocket launchers and command centers deeply with the civilian infrastructure, and destroying it will destroy the homes and many of the lives of the population of southern Lebanon.

Israel would be completely justified in doing this. We aren’t obligated to commit suicide to protect civilians who have rocket launchers in their garages and cellars. This would be tragic for those people, but it’s a tragedy for which Iran and Hizballah would be fully responsible.

Israel too would suffer home front casualties, predicted to be worse than in any war since 1948.

Nevertheless, we know from the example of the recent war in Gaza — in which Gazan casualties were comparatively modest —  what the reaction from US President Obama would be. We can expect an immediate embargo on weapons and ammunition, support for UN demands for a disadvantageous cease-fire, and who knows what other punitive measures. Paradoxically, the better our defensive systems perform and the fewer Israelis die, the greater will be the pressure on us to stop fighting.

Obama’s strategy is perplexing, because the initiative to tilt toward Iran against Israel and the conservative Sunni Arabs is not particularly in the interest of the US. The enemies of America are the radical Islamists of both streams, the Sunni IS and Iranian revolutionary Shiite regime. These are the forces that are metastasizing terrorism throughout the world in an attempt to put an end to Western hegemony. Allowing Iran to nuclearize in the hope that it will bring stability is a potentially disastrous policy. It also alienates former US allies like Egypt and the Jordanian and Saudi regimes, and of course Israel, whose aspirations do not include bringing down the West.

I think, however, that this policy is not being implemented out of a consideration of true long-term American interest. Rather it is based on the personal predilections of Barack Obama, his reverence for Islam and the post-colonialist ideology that characterized his mentors Edward Said, Rashid Khalidi, etc. Michael Oren said that if you want to understand Obama, look at his Cairo address of 2012. Unfortunately, as we saw during the Gaza war last summer, this ideology is the opposite of pro-Israel.

If Israel’s leaders agree with me that much of the stress between the US and Israel today comes directly from the president’s personal ideology, then perhaps they are waiting for Obama’s term to be over before taking on Iran and Hizballah. We can’t predict how a different president will behave, but it’s hard to imagine any of the contenders being worse than Obama.

Our adversaries also are not interested in conflict in the near future. Hizballah is enmeshed in the war in Syria, and Iran wants to put the finishing touches on its nuclear program. If a war with Israel were to splinter Hizballah and weaken Iran, it’s likely that the radical Sunni forces in Syria and Iraq would triumph. Teheran wants to consolidate control of Syria and Iraq before taking on Israel, and it seems to have Obama’s full support in this.

So I don’t expect that Hizballah will provoke Israel tomorrow; and I think Iran will carefully stay on the safe side of Israel’s red lines, while preparing for a last minute dash across them to nuclear-armed status. Israel, for its part, will want to avoid trouble with Obama.

On the other hand, time is not on our side. Iran’s newly-gained economic strength as it is freed of sanctions will enable it to continue to spread terrorism and make incremental gains in influence throughout the world.

I don’t envy the jobs of Israel’s Prime Minister and other officials, who are faced with this dilemma. They know that war with Hizballah is inevitable, as is some degree of armed conflict with Iran. They know that the longer they wait, the stronger the enemy will become. They see the strategic steps that Iran is taking to encircle us and limit our possible actions. And they know it is always better to fight at a time of one’s own choosing.

On the other hand, they know that the US under Barack Obama is supporting the Iranian side in the intra-Muslim conflict that is raging today. They know, also, that Obama is highly unsympathetic to Israel, and his definition of what is acceptable as self-defense for Israel is so narrow as to endanger our survival. America is not America anymore, but Israel is still highly dependent on it for supplies and diplomatic cover.

I’ve left out some of the complicating factors, like Hamas and its competitors for control of Gaza, the PLO and its 80-year old leader, the increasingly anxious Saudis, the Jordanian monarchy that could easily become unstable, the radical opposition to al-Sisi, and of course the Turks and Russians — all of whom have interests and a desire to influence the outcome of the present free-for-all.

So what’s my prediction? I don’t see an immediate danger of war, although low-intensity conflict will continue and probably get worse. But then, the same could have been said in early 1914!

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Palestinian and American terrorists have similar motivations

When I heard about the terrorist mass murder in the South Carolina church, I had a familiar feeling. It was the same feeling I had one morning last November, when I learned of the massacre at the Kehillat Bnei Torah Synagogue in Jerusalem. In fact, it was the same feeling I have had countless times in recent years, including twice more in the past week.

It is a combination of emotions. Sorrow, anger and a desire for justice, but also an assertion that “this time is enough. We won’t take it anymore.” Of course, most likely we won’t stop ‘taking it’, any more than blacks in America will be able to stop being the victims of racially-motivated hate crimes.

There are similarities and differences between our situation and theirs. One of the similarities is that incitement fuels the fury of the vicious or unstable individuals that become perpetrators of terrorism. In America, it’s underground. It isn’t socially acceptable to express race-hatred, but there is plenty of it in private discussions and, above all, on internet sites and social media. Among Palestinian Arabs, incitement to hate and kill Jews is taught in schools, broadcast on official PLO and Hamas media, and preached in mosques.

So when a Palestinian Arab speaks pleasantly to a Jew, smiles and shoots him dead (as happened last week), it isn’t a random act, even if the victim is chosen at random. The killer learned to hate in school in a carefully planned system of education set up by Yasser Arafat when he was allowed to return in 1993, and he heard murder glorified every day by his political and religious leaders.

Dylann Roof, who murdered nine people in Charleston, did not study to be a white supremacist in school, and he probably wasn’t told to go out and kill black people in church. He learned on the internet: Here is what he wrote in his manifesto:

The event that truly awakened me was the Trayvon Martin case. I kept hearing and seeing his name, and eventually I decided to look him up. I read the Wikipedia article and right away I was unable to understand what the big deal was. It was obvious that Zimmerman was in the right. But more importantly this prompted me to type in the words “black on White crime” into Google, and I have never been the same since that day. The first website I came to was the Council of Conservative Citizens. There were pages upon pages of these brutal black on White murders. I was in disbelief. At this moment I realized that something was very wrong. How could the news be blowing up the Trayvon Martin case while hundreds of these black on White murders got ignored?

The Council of Conservative Citizens (CofCC) is the heir of the White Citizens’ Council of the 1960s, which in turn was the more polished version of the KKK. While the CofCC also espouses traditional conservative political positions, racist themes predominate.

The Charleston terrorist thus has his roots directly in the violent racist tradition that grew out of southern opposition to Reconstruction after the Civil War, which was expressed by segregation, lynching, denial of suffrage, etc., and spawned the KKK and similar organizations.

Reconstruction was in part an attempt to punish the South, but it also was intended to rebuild its shattered economy and obtain human and political rights for the newly freed southern blacks. It failed in these latter tasks, and ultimately what emerged was the poor, Democratic-dominated Jim Crow South that existed until the 1960s. The status quo was strictly enforced by the deadly violence of the KKK and other racist groups.

I am indebted to “Sar Shalom” for pointing out to me the analogy between the reactionary southern opposition to Reconstruction, one of whose goals was to keep freed blacks from realizing the rights they should have gained after the Civil War, and the reactionary ‘Palestinian’ movement, which aims to return the region to its pre-WWI Muslim-dominated condition — and to prevent the Jewish people from obtaining its legitimate rights.

Thus Dylann Roof and Arab terrorists are not only driven by similar racist incitement, their ideological goals are also similar: to oppose a progressive change that granted an oppressed people their rights.

Palestinian inversion of reality tries to make it appear that their struggle is intended to gain rights for Arabs. But this interpretation is belied by their rejection of offers of statehood on numerous occasions, their insistence on ‘right of return’ and their refusal to accept the definition of Israel as a Jewish state within any borders. Their movement is not about creating an Arab state, but rather opposing the Jewish one.

And the white supremacists? Their movement isn’t about the rights of “the white race” either. But I don’t think anyone needs to be told that.

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The American sickness

Part of a diagram of the interior of a slave ship

Part of a diagram of the interior of a slave ship

When I came back to Israel after 26 years, obviously some things were different. But they were inessential things, like parking and economics and military threats. Israelis are still Israelis. I’ve been away from America for less than a year, and it seems like another planet.

I was already noticing the obsession with race before I left. The election of Barack Obama, which should have marked a reduction in racial tension, had the opposite effect. Race became even more important among the explosive devices in the minefield of political correctness; one of the things that one had to be exquisitely careful about in conversation. Step on a mine and there might or might not be an immediate explosion, but afterwards nothing you say will be taken seriously.

Most Israelis do not get this yet, thank God. Judy Mozes, a radio personality and the wife of a government minister tweeted an unfunny joke about “Obama coffee” being black and weak. The joke was immediately slammed as ‘racist’ and Mozes forced to apologize.

It’s interesting to ask what is supposed to be so offensive here. Apparently, one is allowed to mention Obama’s race as long as the context is positive. You can say that he is black and strong, but not that he is black and weak. As many observers noted, it doesn’t compare in offensiveness to calling our Prime Minister “a chickenshit,” but whenever race is involved all comparisons fail.

In America, it’s moved beyond political correctness and unfunny jokes. A stupid, evil young man murdered nine people at Bible study because they were black. He looked them in the eyes and murdered them.

It’s easy to find parallel crimes here. Last year two Arabs entered a Jerusalem synagogue and shot and hacked four rabbis and a Druze policeman to death. In the last two days, a Jewish man was murdered and another is in critical condition in two unrelated incidents. In both cases, the Arabs looked the Jew in the eyes and then attacked him.

It is not, however, the same. In our case there is a historical struggle going on. The Arabs have been trying to drive the Jews out of the land of Israel for at least a hundred years. Their murderous actions have a purpose, despite being fueled by racial hatred. In America there’s only the hatred.

I think the explanation lies in history. Black slavery existed in the US for hundreds of years before the Civil War. Everyone knows this, and everyone (I hope) understands that slavery was immoral and evil. But it’s necessary to learn the day-to-day details of the literally atrocious treatment that slaves received to properly understand just how evil. The only living things treated quite as badly as slaves are  animals raised for meat or laboratory experiments.

Slavery in America affected both blacks and whites long after its end. Blacks were understandably angry, but they developed strong family and religious structures which helped them survive in an environment that remained hostile (more recently these structures have fallen apart, in part as a consequence of policies that were intended to repair the damage done by racial prejudice in the larger society). They are still angry.

Whites, on the other hand, bore a large burden of guilt for the institution of slavery, and then for the oppression that followed. Nothing makes you hate someone as much as knowing that you have done evil to him, and this hatred nurtured itself and didn’t disappear. Now that the society is suffering multiple dislocations — middle-class status is becoming harder to hold onto than ever, white families are almost as broken as black ones — some people are holding on to the old race hatred as an anchor.

It’s horribly appropriate that the latest ugly manifestation of racial hatred exploded in Charleston SC, arguably the epicenter of the slave trade in America, in the church founded by Denmark Vesey, a free black man who was executed (lynched, if you prefer) in 1822 for planning a slave uprising.

The racial obsession could be called “the American sickness.” Unfortunately it distorts American perceptions of events in other places. It’s easy for someone like President Obama, who is ignorant of our history, and who learned at the feet of Edward Said, to see our conflict with the Palestinian Arabs in terms of the racial divide he knows so well.

But Israel is not America, and ‘Palestinians’ are anything but the descendents of black slaves and the victims of segregation, Jim Crow and apartheid.

My advice for the USA in this difficult and frightening time is this: work out your racial issues and fix them. And in the meantime, don’t press your hangups on us.

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