The most effective message: don’t mess with us

We complain a lot about Israel’s continuing defeats in the information arena. Why is it that a country that is so good at technology and commerce, a people that gave birth to two great religions, a culture that enjoys perhaps the world’s best ratio of happiness to adversity, can lose over and over in the battle for hearts and minds, especially those of young people?

Why does almost the entire world agree that ‘settlements are illegal’ and expect us to pick up and leave? How can there even be an organization called “Queers Undermining Israeli Terrorism?” Why do Israel-hating professors indoctrinate students to believe that we are monsters? Why is the al-Dura libel still believed? Why is the phony ‘Palestinian’ narrative becoming the conventional wisdom about the establishment of our state? Why does Israel come in second only to North Korea as the country that most UK residents “feel especially unfavourable towards?”

Why, when Israel fights a defensive war, are we invariably accused of war crimes despite the fact that military experts consistently say that the IDF does more than any other army in history to protect the civilian population? Why is Arab terrorism against us minimized in the media, while negative stories are amplified? Why is social media suffused with anti-Israel content?

Orwell’s “Two Minutes Hate” has been replicated in “Israel apartheid week” observances in universities around the world, with the Jew of Nations replacing the Orwell’s Emmanuel Goldstein, and in various UN-sponsored Hates throughout the year.

Yes, there are lots of reasons for the above – Jew hatred, and oil money are two of them – and there are also some bright spots, but the sheer volume of negative feelings toward us is remarkable, and we are making very little headway in opposing it. And the reason is simple: we don’t have a clue about influencing opinion.

We just don’t get it, which is why we often do exactly the opposite of what we should.

Humans are driven by emotions, not reason, although they often come up with rational arguments to justify their emotional decisions. It is also the case that the emotional drivers may sometimes seem perverse. But they are what they are, created by evolutionary forces in the history of the human race (see Jonathan Haidt, The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion).

If we want to get people on our side, to identify with us emotionally – and that’s what we want, not abstract ‘justice’ or any other rational concept – then we need to pull the right strings. The Arabs and their friends have been doing it for years, which is why they are so far ahead today.

One of the most important drivers is – as Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump understand – that folks want to go with the winner. The rational mind thinks that ‘how you play the game’ matters, but the subconscious driver agrees with Vince Lombardi: winning is the only thing.

So what have we done? We’ve engaged in Holocaust education, which often consists of talking about how we let the Germans stuff us into gas chambers. The object seems to be to make people feel sorry for us, the ultimate losers. But it doesn’t make people want to be on our side; it makes them want to get as far away from us as possible. For our enemies, it gives them ideas and serves as ‘snuff porn’.

What we should emphasize about the Holocaust are such things as the Warsaw Ghetto uprising, hanging Eichmann and even ‘morally wrong’ behaviors like Jewish terrorism against Germans after the war. We shouldn’t dwell on our pain, but rather stress that anyone who hurts our people will pay a price; our response will be disproportionate, even brutal.

Golda Meir did the right thing when she ordered the Mossad to kill everyone connected with the Munich massacre. Displaying weakness is asking for more abuse; strength is both a deterrent and attractive. We want to be admired for our strength, toughness and success, not pitied.

Which brings us to Gaza. We fought the last few wars (this in itself is a problem) trying our best to avoid hurting civilians. Some say the next war will see every combat soldier accompanied by a lawyer to ensure that we are not charged with war crimes. There has been criticism that our concern impairs the fighting efficiency of the IDF. Indeed it does, but that’s not the only problem: it projects weakness. And they’ll charge us with war crimes anyway. So next time, let’s just concentrate on crushing Hamas.

The same applies to fighting terrorism. It seems to me that someone like Saadi Ali Abu Hammad, who viciously attacked a security guard at the Ma’ale Adumim mall last week, should be killed on the spot, not imprisoned. Such a statement may seem shocking, because it goes against our commitment to a rule of law. But even if there weren’t practical considerations – do we want the terrorist to collect a salary from the PA until he is freed as ransom for a kidnap victim? – there are the psychological implications. Our message should be that trying to murder Jews is intolerable, not something for teenagers to do after school, like shoplifting.

On the political level, PM Netanyahu continues to say that “Israel desires peace.” Of course it does, but emphasizing this projects weakness. Who begs for peace? The side losing the war. What the PM should be saying is that we intend to protect the Land of Israel and all its inhabitants, and anyone who threatens us will be destroyed. Not just defeated, but crushed. Wiped off the map. Erased from memory like Amalek.

But wait, don’t the Arabs try to make themselves out to be victims? Don’t they accuse us of brutality? Yes they do, but at the same time they strike out at us – they claim to be striking back – with extreme savagery. This savagery is the vehicle for message that they are sending to the world, which is that they are strong, they are so committed to their cause that they are prepared to die for it, and ultimately they will win. And our response is to tell them that we will sit down and negotiate with them at any time, even while they are stabbing us! No. We should respond to terrorism with expulsions and expropriation of land.

We need to change our messaging and also our behavior. This won’t be easy for us, accustomed as we are to trying to put on a polite, Western mask. Our Prime Minister, who courageously faced live fire as a soldier, nevertheless has trouble facing a hostile American president.

We don’t need to tell the world that we have beautiful women, nice beaches, lots of tech companies and gay pride parades (there actually was such a campaign). That will have zero effect. Rather, with our actions and words, we should pursue respect, project strength, even provoke fear – and certainly not pity.

Thanks to the paradoxical nature of the human brain, it may get us friendship and understanding in the end.

Posted in Information war, Terrorism | 3 Comments

Bring back the Iron Wall

A frame from the security video of the terror attack in Ma'ale Adumim

A frame from the security video of the terror attack in Ma’ale Adumim

The vicious ax attack on an unarmed security guard at a mall last Thursday night stood out among the hundreds of similar incidents in the last few months because of its extreme brutality, because the terrorist and the victim worked in the same place and even had coffee together, and because it was caught on video for the entire nation to see.

Saadi Ali Abu Hammad, 21, was allowed to sleep in the mall where he worked in a food shop so that he could start preparations for the Friday rush early. He lay in wait for the guard, Tzvika Cohen, 47, and beat him mercilessly with an ax. Cohen is still in critical condition, fighting for his life.

From the victims’ point of view, all terrorism is the same. It’s impossible to say that this attack was ‘worse’ than others. But, like the murder of Dafna Meir in the doorway of her home five weeks ago, or the atrocious slaughter of five members of the Fogel family in 2011, it spotlights the strength of the hatred burning in Palestinian hearts.

Naturally Israelis would like to do something to put an end to the terrorism, which shows no sign of abating on its own and appears to be getting worse. The reaction of the Palestinian Authority is to say that they have no control over the actions of individuals, while at the same time treating them as heroes and exemplars for Arab youth. Hamas, of course, calls for more violence.

Suggestions run the gamut from trying to ease Palestinian ‘despair’ by providing a ‘horizon’ upon which, presumably, they could see an independent state, to Israel declaring sovereignty over all of Judea and Samaria and expelling the Arabs. In between there are all kinds of ideas for improving the security of the Jewish population by increasing the presence of security forces, building walls, and so on.

The Labor Party’s Yitzhak Herzog admits that a two-state agreement is impossible at this point for various reasons, but he wants to ‘separate’ from the Palestinians by withdrawing from parts of Judea and Samaria and building walls. This is supposed to improve security but still keep the “two-state vision.”

There are several problems with this idea. The main one is that a withdrawal from any part of the territories will be seen by the Arabs as a victory for their strategy of murdering Jews until we give up and leave. It will cause them to redouble their efforts. It might even encourage more Arab citizens of Israel – who until now have taken only a small part in the ‘stabbing intifada’ – to join in, in the hope that final victory is at last achievable.

One would think that what happened after Israel withdrew from Gaza would have made it clear that it would be stupid to remake the same mistake in Judea and Samaria. But the belief that the conflict can be ended by appeasement seems to be a tenacious one.

The idea that the cause of today’s violence is despair over the Arabs’ inability to get a state is part of the fantasy that what they want is a state. The cause is not despair at all, but rather hope – hope that together with their allies all over the world, they can force us to concede enough land and security so that one day they will succeed in getting rid of us.

This was understood before the founding of the state by Ze’ev Jabotinsky, who saw the desire of the Arabs to be rid of the Zionists as completely natural, and argued that the only solution was to ensure, by means of an “iron wall” of resolve (and military power), that they would have no hope of success. Jabotinsky had no desire to expel the Arabs; but he understood full well that coexistence could only be guaranteed by force. Ben-Gurion, who would never admit agreeing with Jabotinsky about anything, nevertheless understood this and acted accordingly.

More recently Meir Kahane thought that coexistence was impossible in any case. Arabs (he didn’t distinguish between Arab citizens of Israel and residents of Judea and Samaria) must be encouraged to leave, and if they won’t leave voluntarily with compensation, they must be expelled.

A vigil for 23-year old Shlomit Krigman, murdered last month. The sticker on the guitar reads "Rabbi Kahane was right!"

A vigil for 23-year old Shlomit Krigman, murdered last month. The sticker on the guitar reads “Rabbi Kahane was right!”

The recent series of murders and the inhumanity that characterizes them have led many Israeli Jews to come to the conclusion that Kahane’s program is the right one. But while getting rid of all the Arabs would solve the problem of Arab terrorism in our streets, it would be difficult or impossible to implement.

The relative peacefulness of the Arab population within the Green Line suggests that Jabotinsky’s solution may be workable. Something that many people are not aware of is that between 1948 and 1966, Arab Israelis lived under military rule. In 1966, they received full civil rights, including voting and serving in the Knesset. This evolution was possible because Israel, despite its left-wing orientation at that time, maintained Jabotinsky’s iron wall.

What would it mean in terms of actual policy? Here are some ideas:

  • Explict renunciation of the Oslo process
  • Annexation of all of the territories and a commitment to keeping them
  • Elimination of the PLO
  • A tough line against terrorism, including a death penalty for murder and expulsion of the families of terrorists
  • A policy of building settlements in response to terrorism

In 1948 the Arabs had been soundly defeated. Many fled during the war, including their leadership. In the following years, they came to see that the Jewish state was not going away, and realized that cooperation was more practical than confrontation. One of the reasons that this development was possible was that the Arabs were not subject to continuous incitement from the great powers. A similar process could have happened in Judea and Samaria after 1967, if Israel had been left alone.

But especially after 1973’s oil shock, the reversal of the outcome of the 1967 war became a major Western foreign policy goal. Great pressure was put on Israel to withdraw from the territories rather than to integrate their Arab populations. In 1993 this culminated in the Oslo accords, which – by bringing the rejectionist PLO back into the picture (and into our country) – made it possible for the Arabs of the territories to imagine a world without Israel.

The PLO also established its comprehensive hate-education system, which has since borne evil fruit in the form of creatures like Saadi Ali Abu Hammad.

A return to the policy of Jabotinsky’s Iron Wall would probably mean a break with the US and the EU, which would be vehemently opposed to every part of the program.

Israel’s ruling party under Netanyahu is not prepared today to take this step, and the opposition is even less so. But the consequences of not doing it will be the creation of an Arab terror state on our doorstep, as well as the radicalization of the Arab Israelis with whom we have so far coexisted. It will mean the continuation and even exacerbation of terrorism.

Those who say that the solution to terrorism is primarily political and not military are almost right. They just have the politics wrong.

Posted in Israel and Palestinian Arabs, Terrorism | 1 Comment

Being the Jew that fights back

Recently, Palestinian human rights activist (really) Bassem Eid was threatened by anti-Israel demonstrators, and had to have a police escort out of a talk he gave at the University of Chicago. Caroline Glick noted this incident as more evidence that the goal of the supposedly pro-Palestinian movement is not to help Palestinians but rather to hurt Israel.

Eid was a researcher for B’Tselem, and founded the Palestinian Human Rights Monitoring Group (PHMRG). PHMRG has criticized Israel sharply on occasion. But it also attacks the PA and Hamas for human rights abuses of Palestinians, such as murder and torture of prisoners, executions of ‘collaborators’, suppression of journalists, and so forth.

Glick also mentioned that Eid was challenged by ‘Emily’, a Jewish member of J Street (probably the tamest of the Jewish anti-Israel organizations), who thought his message should have been about “occupation and settlements.”

None of this is new or surprising. But it made me ask this question: why are there so few Bassem Eids in the world and so many Emilys, especially in America?

One reason there aren’t more Eids is the very behavior of the Palestinian leadership that he opposes. In areas under the control of the PA or Hamas, dissidents to the official line are afraid for their lives and those of their families. Even in Arab towns inside the Green line, the influence of radicals makes it dangerous to speak out.

But in the US and other places where it is relatively safe, it is a rare – not unheard of, but rare – Palestinian, Arab or other Muslim who will admit that Israel bears anything less than full responsibility for the conflict. While I am convinced that they base their opinions on false history, made up facts and deliberate blindness, I admire their solidarity.

And I wonder what is wrong with so many Jews, who could cite true history and real facts to support a pro-Israel position if they wish, but who prefer to spit in the face of their own people.

They will tell you that it is because they are on the side of justice. But how did they decide where justice lies? The Arab narrative is not the only one that they are exposed to. The Jewish/Israeli one is accessible to them as well. They had to make a choice, and they chose to believe the Arab story and to align themselves with the Arab side, despite the fact that their liberal sensitivities ought to be outraged by the corruption, racism, sexism, homophobia and brutality that characterizes the Palestinian Arab culture.

In a recent essay, Richard Landes proposes a surprising answer. The motivator is shame.

Landes makes an analogy between the shame that makes an Arab father murder his own daughter in order to clear a stain on the family honor, and the shame felt by a progressive Jew when his family member, Israel, is believed by his community – the “global progressive Left” – to have sinned against progressive values:

The feelings stem not because of what Israel has (often enough not) done, and certainly not in comparison with the behavior of our neighbors, but because of “how it looks” to outsiders. Shame comes from looking bad – awful – in the eyes of people whose opinion matters. When it comes to the emotion, it matters little what actually happened. In the most toxic of honor-shame communities, men kill their daughters and sisters not because they did something shameful, but because others think it, true or not.

And the source of “how it looks” is what he calls the “ferociously negative depiction of Israel in the global public sphere” today, the well-documented tendency of the media to distort news of the conflict to portray Israel as the villain in every incident, and in many cases, as being motivated by racism and hatred for innocent Palestinians.

But Landes doesn’t explain how it came about that progressive American Jews, the very antitheses of the honor killers of the Mideast, exhibit honor-shame behavior. In other words, why do they care so much about how they look to others in this respect? To understand this, we must consider the history of the European Jews that are the ancestors of most of those paradigms of modernity.

Those Jews lived in communities where they were at the mercy of the gentile rulers and majority populations. They faced periodic pogroms, expulsions and expropriations of their property. Those that didn’t try to assimilate – a choice that wasn’t even available in most cases until the 19th Century – learned to get along, to appease, to buy off, to flatter. What they didn’t do was directly confront Jew-haters, because that would most likely have gotten them killed.

This situation was recognized as both unsustainable and dishonorable by Herzl and other early Zionists. But the non-Zionists and anti-Zionists chose to continue the policy of appeasement. From the beginning of the Zionist movement, a sharp line was drawn between the fighters – the Zionists – and the appeasers.

These are the folks that supported Roosevelt’s policy of inaction during the Holocaust, and vilified the Zionists of the Bergson Group who tried to change that policy. And their grandchildren created J Street, which supports Barack Obama’s policy of forcing Israel into indefensible borders and preventing her from actively defending herself.

At the same time, these Jews grew up in America and have absorbed the American ethos of self-reliance and self-defense.

To this type of Jew, nothing is more embarrassing than the Jew that fights back, because they are still afraid that assertive behavior endangers the Jewish community, while at the same time they are ashamed of themselves for not fighting back.

This is the source of the shame that drives the irrational and highly emotional hatred of Israel – the Israeli being the paradigm case of ‘the Jew that fights back’ – that characterizes the progressive Jews active in J Street, Jewish Voice for Peace and Students for Justice in Palestine.

If this is correct, then there isn’t much that Zionists can say to these shame-obsessed Jews. We are not only supporters of the country they are ashamed of, but ourselves objects of shame. No wonder they are so angry at us!

Posted in American Jews, Zionism | 2 Comments

It’s a MAD, MAD world

Si vis pacem, para bellum [he who desires peace, prepare for war] – Vegetius

Anyone older than about 30 remembers the “balance of terror,” or in academic terms, the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). This meant that the US and the Soviet Union each had enough deliverable nuclear weapons to utterly destroy the other, and systems in place to respond after an attack was launched but before it struck, or weapons that could survive a first strike (“second-strike capability”).

MAD proponents reasoned that as long as both sides knew this, it would be illogical to attack first. And if neither side attacked first, then there would be no nuclear war.

There were some interesting implications. For example, if one side had an effective antimissile system, then it might assume that it could survive an attack by the other side, and might be tempted to make a preemptive strike. Another paradox was the moral dilemma of the man with his finger on the button after it was determined that the other side had already launched its ICBMs. Should he retaliate? His country was already doomed, so why increase the suffering by destroying his enemy?

Many things can destabilize a MAD standoff. I mentioned antimissile systems, but shelters for population and hardening of infrastructure could also have that effect. There are also political factors, as we shall see.

Regardless of the logic or illogic of MAD, it seems to have worked for several decades, from the 1960s until after the breakup of the Soviet Union (it’s not clear if it still applies between the US and Russia or China).

A form of MAD appears to be in place today between Israel and Iran/Hezbollah, although nuclear weapons are (as far as I know) not involved yet. Hezbollah has more than 100,000 short, medium and long-range missiles, and probably attack tunnels under the border. These weapons pose a serious threat to Israel. Israel, in turn, has the ability to completely destroy the infrastructure of Lebanon as well as to turn the southern part of the country – where most of Hezbollah’s missiles are embedded in civilian neighborhoods – into a wasteland, using conventional weapons.

The damage to both countries in the event of a full-scale exchange of fire would be great, although it would not approach the devastation that a nuclear war between the US and the USSR would have wrought. But the logic is similar in that mutual deterrence will be maintained as long as the expected damage would be unacceptable to both sides.

Both sides are working to prevent the other side from unbalancing the equation. So Israel is deploying antimissile systems and (at least talking about) hardening infrastructure, while Hezbollah is trying to improve the accuracy of its missiles so that they will be a threat not only to civilians but to Israel’s airfields, command and control systems and critical infrastructure; and to obtain surface-to-air missiles, and other weapons. And then there are the political and psychological factors that can affect deterrence.

This is where it gets devilishly complicated.

Hezbollah is a non-state actor. It isn’t clear to what extent it acts independently and to what extent it takes orders from Iran. Naturally, the Iranian regime doesn’t care as much about the consequences of war to Lebanon as it would care about its own population and infrastructure. Put another way, Iran is willing to accept a lot more damage to Lebanon than the Lebanese themselves would – but nobody is asking them.

This has a very important implication for Israel’s doctrine of deterrence. In order for it to be effective, Israel needs to hold Iran responsible for Hezbollah’s behavior, and this must be conveyed to Iranian leaders unambiguously. In the event that Hezbollah launches missiles at Israel, of course the first priority for the IDF will be to destroy the launchers in South Lebanon. But at the same time, a massive retaliatory attack must be made against Iran. If this is not clear to the Iranian regime then the possibility of a first strike from Hezbollah is much greater.

If Hezbollah attacks Israel, the US/UN/EU will certainly try to impose a cease-fire as quickly as possible. Since Hezbollah’s launchers are embedded in civilian neighborhoods, there will be many casualties and great pressure on Israel. Iran and Hezbollah understand this well, which is why they put them there.

Our position has to be that locating these weapons among noncombatants is a war crime, and that Hezbollah and Iran are responsible for the collateral damage. This is painful psychologically, but morally and legally we have the right to defend ourselves. Israel must not give in to American pressure (which could even include threats of intervention) until Hezbollah’s teeth are pulled – and until retaliation against Iran is carried out.

This would probably result in Iran retaliating in turn, and might lead to an open-ended conflict.

What about a first (preemptive) strike against Hezbollah by Israel? Because of the unavoidable loss of life around the missile launchers and other Hezbollah installations, it would place us at an immediate diplomatic disadvantage. On the other hand, it might be possible to deter Iran from taking part. In this case the war would be contained to southern Lebanon. We would have the advantage of surprise, and probably the number of Israel’s civilian and military casualties would be much smaller.

Another possible scenario is a preemptive strike against Iran, or “cutting the head off the snake,” as the former king of Saudi Arabia once put it. The problem is that this would probably be immediately followed by the launch of Hezbollah rockets. This makes it the worst option, with all the diplomatic problems of a preemptive attack and the military ones of letting Hezbollah strike first.

We must take into account the fact that as a result of the nuclear deal, Iran’s offensive and defensive capabilities – as well as its diplomatic clout – will soon be greatly improved, making it more difficult for Israel to deter it from launching an attack via Hezbollah or by itself, and making any conflict with it more damaging for us. Doing nothing and depending on MAD thus works against us.

Is MAD a reasonable alternative to war? Maybe, for a time. It worked for the US and the USSR. The Middle East is a lot more complicated, though. There are more actors and some of them are irrational. Are the Iranians irrational enough to attack Israel, via Hezbollah or even with a nuclear weapon, knowing that Israel has a well-developed second-strike capability? We can’t be sure. What would Russia do?

Can Hezbollah be disarmed without war? In a perfect world, that would have happened in 2006, as a consequence of a better UN Security Council resolution. We don’t live in that kind of world.

What Israel seems to be doing is depending on MAD for now and hoping for an opportunity to change the situation. One thing that is certain is that we must continue to build up both offensive and defensive capabilities against both Iran and Hezbollah, both for deterrence and for possible war.

Si vis pacem, para bellum.

Posted in Iran, War | 1 Comment

How the US is helping Iran and hurting Israel

This may be the worst short-term consequence of the Iranian nuclear deal of all:

Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan is on a two-day tour of Moscow to meet with his counterparts about the signing of a new $8 billion arms contract, according to Iran’s state-controlled media.

Iranian leaders are said to have provided Russia with what they call a “shopping list” of various arms and military hardware. The visit by Dehghan is expected to “speed up a number of key arms deal[s]” between the countries, according to Iran’s Fars News Agency.

Iran wants to purchase more sophisticated anti-aircraft missile systems and also a new cadre of warplanes, according to the report. The new deals will be in addition to several outstanding arms and military contracts that have already been signed between Iran and Russia.

The troubling part is not that Iran will improve its military capabilities, although of course that will happen in a few years as the arms are delivered and integrated into the Iranian forces. But it’s what happens tomorrow which is worrisome: Iran becomes Russia’s best customer in a very profitable industry.

The same will be true of other countries. Germany and France sent delegations to Iran for dealmaking before the ink on the deal was dry (except that there wasn’t any ink – nothing has been signed except the various documents required to free up at least $100 billion in frozen Iranian funds and to remove sanctions on Iran’s oil industry). Iran is also expected to buy weapons from China. These deals will give Iran the ability to pressure its suppliers for political favors.

I’ve argued that Israel needs to reduce its dependence on the US for military hardware and should develop relationships with countries like Russia, China and (as Caroline Glick recently suggested) India. But this will be more difficult if it becomes important to those countries to keep the Iranian regime happy. It’s already happening:

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday called for establishing a Palestinian state within the pre-1967-war borders amid efforts by Beijing to assert its economic and political clout in the Middle East.

Addressing the Cairo-based Arab League, Xi said the Palestinian problem “should not be marginalized.”

“China supports the peaceful process in the Middle East [and] the establishment of a Palestinian state with its capital being eastern Jerusalem,” he added through an interpreter. …

The Chinese president had arrived in Egypt Wednesday as part of a regional tour that has already taken him to Saudi Arabia. Iran will be the final stop in his three-nation trip. [my emphasis]

The relationship between Israel and the US, which seems to be getting worse all the time, may suffer even more. Recently, the huge General Electric Company sent the head of its oil and gas division to Iran to explore business opportunities.

In international business/politics, the customer is always right – and the big customer gets big influence. Usually it’s expressed by behind-the-scenes lobbying, but in 1973 oil companies doing business in the Arab world went public, with Texaco, Chevron, and Mobil all publicly calling for a change in US Middle East policy.

After the war began, the oil companies lobbied US President Nixon against resupplying Israel (fortunately, fearing that Israel in extremis would be driven to use nuclear weapons, he did not follow their advice). Will GE and other American companies be pressured to support Iranian goals once commerce with Iran becomes an important part of their business? How could they not?

Under the present addict/pusher arrangement, Israel lacks the leverage it would get if there were competition for its business. Israel receives military aid from the US and then is required to use it to buy arms from US companies (and not only weapons – things like boots, which once were produced by Israeli businesses, are imported from the US).

It doesn’t have clout with the Americans either. For example, Israel wanted access to the source code for the F-35’s computer systems, so that it could modify and improve it. The US refused. Not only does this significantly slow the process of integration of the new aircraft with Israel’s systems, but it raises the specter of possible ‘back doors’ into the code which might enable the US to track or even force the plane down.

Think about it. How hard would it be to implant a routine in the aircraft’s software that would provide a position report to an American satellite every few seconds? What if the airborne computer could receive a command to disable certain weapons systems? Or the engine? Or even be instructed to do so automatically when, say, the Iranian border is crossed? This isn’t science fiction — it’s a lot easier than many of the things a flight computer has to do.

After the Iran deal was signed, the administration promised Israel that it would be “compensated” with additional aid. Israel wanted to use it to buy F-15SE aircraft and bunker busters, but according to Caroline Glick, the US refused and told it to buy more F-35s instead.

Iran has been given multiple gifts by the Obama Administration, from billions of dollars up front to permission to ultimately build nuclear weapons (and the de facto ability to build them now without getting caught). It was considered Israel’s number one threat even before the deal, and the deal only made it stronger, militarily, politically and psychologically.

Israel, on the other hand, has been hamstrung by the US. The administration interferes when Israel is forced to defend itself from attack by the Iranian proxies on its borders, prevents it from obtaining the weapons it would need to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, subjects it to constant diplomatic pressure over the Palestinian issue, and now – with the recent decision to enforce a rule demanding special labeling for goods produced over the Green Line – joins Europe in encouraging BDS, in practice if not in words.

$3 billion is a lot of money, but unlike the $100 billion that the nuclear deal has made available to Iran, it comes with so many strings attached that we would be better off without it.

Posted in Iran, US-Israel Relations | 2 Comments

A world without Jews (2012)

Thanks to Facebook’s ‘memories’ feature, I was reminded of this post from four years ago. I liked it so much I am re-running it. No need to change a word.

Thought experiment time:

Perhaps one day, the Jews of the world will finally become fed up. Maybe they will build an enormous spaceship and take their arguments to another planet (we know Jews are smart, so they could do this).

What would happen on that planet might be interesting, but I won’t speculate, although it’s tempting to wonder what a Jewish planet would be like. Like Israel without the foreign workers,  terrorism and reserve duty?

I’m more interested in what the Earth would be like. Imagine a Middle East without Jews (the Iranian regime does this all the time). Pity the ‘Palestinians’, whose culture would suddenly lose its raison d’être. After a few days of enjoying the nice cars and buildings the Jews left behind, they would have to create a real identity for themselves.

Suddenly there would be very little interest in supporting the ‘refugees’. Who would care about them? Not the Arab countries, who treat them like garbage now. I expect there would be fighting between various factions, some Islamist and some secular. Hizballah would take control of the North, Hamas the South, and Fatah the East. The UN would feed them, at least for a while. Turkey, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc. would each supply its favored faction with weapons, and they would fight until most of the land was swallowed up by its neighbors or under control of various militias.

The former Israeli Arabs, used to a degree of civilization and lacking the pent-up viciousness of the militias, would be out of luck. Their property would soon be stolen or requisitioned by the militias. The US President would make a speech about promoting democracy in the region, and would pick a faction to support, one that could talk the talk, but real power would come from the barrels of guns. It would soon look a lot like Libya, but worse.

The disaster would be blamed on the Jews, but there would be little satisfaction from this, since there would be no way to punish them. Mearsheimer and Walt would have to get real jobs. Many academics would have to find new causes, but none would be as emotionally fulfilling. Certain industries and cities in the US would be decimated; it would be an immediate disaster for the US economy, although it would recover. Europe, where there were fewer Jews, would continue to commit cultural suicide as before.

Without Israel, the Muslim states, sects and militias would concentrate on expanding their power at each others’ expense. Ultimately a few groups would achieve dominance and viciously suppress the others.

In 50 years, the Middle East, parts of what is now Russia, and most of Europe would be divided into Turkish, Pakistani and Iranian spheres of influence, perhaps even empires. All would be Islamist.

The US, still independent, would little by little develop a different culture without the Jewish influence (and under pressure of endemic terrorism). Many Americans would find order more important than preservation of individual rights. The particularly Jewish strains of non-coercive liberalism on the one hand and libertarianism on the other would die out, being replaced on the Left by an oppressive Soviet-style communism and on the Right by Fascism.

There would still be Nobel prizes, but they would all be awarded to Muslims. Criticism of Islam would be forbidden in Europe, of course, and Shari’a would be the law of the land in many countries. The number of Christians would decline sharply everywhere. In Europe  Christians would live as dhimmis. In the US, many would convert to Islam, but there would remain a strong Christian presence, including militant groups hostile to Muslims.

Scientific progress in many areas would have been interrupted by the loss of so many scientists. Medical science, in particular, would suffer a severe blow. Epidemics of new illnesses caused by drug-resistant pathogens and biological agents released in the Mideast wars would ravage the world; the Jewish doctors and scientists who would have developed answers to them would be busy somewhere else.

Literature, art and science that was seen as challenging to Islam would be suppressed in much of the world. In the US, it would be ‘controversial’. Books and works of art created by Jews would be destroyed where radical Islam was ascendant.

In the immortal words of Thomas Hobbes, life on earth would again be “nasty, brutish and short.”

Posted in The Jewish people | 1 Comment

Soothing words and golden handcuffs

Golden HandcuffsI have never understood why Israel grants legitimacy to the so-called ‘Middle East Quartet’ of the US, UN, EU and Russia.

Each of these entities is hostile to Israel to some extent. None of them has demonstrated an understanding of or concern for Israel’s security issues. The UN and EU have sided with the Arabs for decades, while the Obama Administration has tilted US policy away from Israel more than any previous administration. Russia is working closely with Iran, Hezbollah and Bashar al-Assad, all three our deadly foes. A lot has been made of Russian ‘coordination’ with Israel to avoid confrontation in the skies over Syria, but what is in Putin’s interest today may not be tomorrow.

Several months ago, PM Netanyahu banished the EU from any role in negotiations between Israel and the PLO because of the EU’s anti-Israel, even antisemitic project to require all goods produced across the Green Line by Jews to be specially labeled as something other than ‘product of Israel’.

Yes, it matters if the product was produced by Jews or Arabs! Here is the relevant guideline:

For [Arab – ed.] products from Palestine that do not originate from settlements, an indication which does not mislead about the geographical origin, while corresponding to international practice, could be ‘product from the West Bank (Palestinian product)’, ‘product from Gaza’ or ‘product from Palestine’.

For products from the West Bank or the Golan Heights that originate from settlements, an indication limited to ‘product from the Golan Heights’ or ‘product from the West Bank’ would not be acceptable. Even if they would designate the wider area or territory from which the product originates, the omission of the additional geographical [ethnic! – ed.] information that the product comes from Israeli settlements would mislead the consumer as to the true origin of the product. In such cases the expression ‘Israeli settlement’ or equivalent needs to be added …

On Friday, Netanyahu agreed to allow the EU to participate again in the negotiations which everyone knows can’t bring about an agreement but which are useful to squeeze concessions out of Israel. Did the EU agree to rescind the labeling requirement? No, but the EU’s Federica Mogherini “told Netanyahu that the responsibility for implementing the guidelines rests with the 28 member states of the EU.” The PM’s spokesman called this a concession, but it clearly is not. And she added that

… the labeling was not intended to prejudice any final status issues. The consumer labels do not constitute a boycott and should not be interpreted as such …

Not prejudice? Re-read the guideline I quoted above, which clearly asserts – contrary to Israel’s view and that of many independent legal authorities – that Israel is not sovereign across the Green Line, and even implies that there is already an entity called ‘Palestine’.

Naturally, there are no similar requirements in place for any other disputed territories, like Chinese-occupied Tibet or Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus. And while a label is in itself not a boycott, the effect is to facilitate boycotts. As far as I know, the ethnic condition of the labeling requirement is something that the world hasn’t seen since Nazi Germany.

Netanyahu was also concerned about the EU financing illegal Arab construction in Area C, the parts of Judea/Samaria that are supposed to be under full Israeli control according to the Oslo Accords. But Mogherini would only agree to “hold further talks” about this.

In other words, the EU is willing to say nice things but not to change its policy one bit. And Netanyahu agreed to allow it to go right back to sticking its nose into our business.

This is a specific case of the general problem of Israel backing down under pressure. It is often blamed on PM Netanyahu, who is called ‘spineless’. Actually, the opposite is true. Netanyahu knows that his popularity at home will decrease if he is perceived as giving in to pressure from the EU and the Obama Administration, but his assessment is that the economic and diplomatic consequences of standing firm will be unacceptable. In other words, he is taking the hit for the good of the country! He is not spineless, but I think his policy is wrong.

Caroline Glick has called the joint EU/US pressure – backed up by Arab terrorism – a “coordinated assault.” She’s right. It is a hypocritical and cynical policy that combines verbal assurances of support and concern as well as US military aid with every kind of pressure short of invasion. The objective is to force Israel to exit the territories and half of its capital, something which almost every Israeli analyst or politician understands would be disastrous.

What makes it cynical is that the US administration and EU functionaries know this too. They simply don’t care about our security and in many circles would prefer to see the Jewish state eliminated. So they use American aid as leverage, try to subvert our elections, fund NGOs that engage in demonization and lawfare, prevent Israel from preempting enemy attacks or responding to them, support the PLO and train its army, and so forth.

In a very real sense, much of the West has become our enemy.

Where I think Netanyahu goes wrong is by thinking that he can play their game and win. He’ll hold out for a better American president, he thinks, who will see Israel as the front line of Western civilization and act accordingly. That would be a mistake. Even George W. Bush, the most pro-Israel president in recent history, did not significantly change American policy toward Israel and the Arabs, especially in his last term. And the promises that he did make in return for the withdrawal from Gaza were reneged upon by the next administration.

I would prefer that the PM take the difficult route of confronting the US and EU about their support for Palestinian Arab terrorism while at the same time taking steps to reduce our dependence on the US and the influence of the EU in this country.

Netanyahu should say ‘no’ to the F-35, as Caroline Glick argues persuasively. We must find alternatives to buying weapons systems with US military aid. The Knesset must make and enforce tough rules to control the subversive EU-funded NGOs active in our country. We must put an end to the American arming and training of the PLO, and we should explain to our ‘allies’ that we are not going to permit cement and building materials to enter Gaza when they are being diverted to tunnel construction. Although Israel’s relationship with China and India has improved greatly in recent years, this needs to become our top diplomatic priority.

Israel will suffer economically for this policy in the short term. But our security and self-respect demand that we stop depending for the continued existence of our state on those who offer only soothing words and golden handcuffs.

Posted in Europe and Israel, US-Israel Relations | 6 Comments

The leading indicators don’t look good for America

In economics, a ‘leading indicator’ is something that can be used to predict the future behavior of a market or even a national economy. For example, if the number of building permits issued per month increases, then one might expect that construction activity will soon follow, along with higher stock prices for companies making or selling building materials.

There are also social and political leading indicators. It used to be said that California was a leading indicator for the US as a whole, and in some ways this is or was true. California experienced the increasingly extreme polarization of left vs. right – Berkeley against Orange County – back in the early 1960s, before it became the rule rather than the exception.

Young people are the ultimate political leading indicator, with adjustments for their immaturity and tendency to tilt leftward. After all, they grow up to become our political and cultural leaders.

And young people in the US have changed greatly in the past 50 years or so. Perhaps I should say that they have been changed. It started in the late 1960s, when the system of higher education – which influences young people at the age that they are first developing their political consciousness – underwent a rapid and massive upheaval.

I was in college and graduate school between 1960 and 1970, first as a student and then as a teacher. I continued to teach part-time for a year afterwards, before I realized that I wasn’t suited for academic life. I watched the change happen in real time.

One aspect of it was the politicization of the professoriate. Although there were exceptions, in 1960 there was a general belief that a teacher should be objective; that is, that he should not allow political opinions to color his presentation. It was recognized that to some extent it is impossible to prevent personal politics and prejudices from affecting teaching, but it was expected that an instructor would try his best to be fair when dealing with controversial subjects.

By 1970, it was generally believed that objectivity was impossible, and therefore – a very unsound inference – that no attempt to achieve it should be made. Not all, but many teachers unabashedly delivered political polemics in their classrooms and engaged in political organizing on campus. This was justified as ‘academic freedom’, even though the original concept of academic freedom was about freedom to take positions unpopular in a professor’s discipline, not to pontificate about unrelated political issues.

At the same time, the black civil rights movement and the other ‘liberation’ movements that it inspired drew attention to the fact that culture, history, and contributions to society of groups like African-Americans and women were often ignored in scholarly and popular discourse, and that their disadvantaged position in society was partly a result of this.

The solution that was demanded, however, was not to make existing disciplines mend their ways but to establish new and separate disciplines of Black Studies, Women’s Studies and others. A corollary to the dogma that objectivity is impossible is the one that only a member of a designated ‘oppressed’ group can understand the problems of that group, so the staff of these departments had to be drawn from the relevant groups. Such departments were very highly politicized, sometimes so much so that their members were primarily political activists and only secondarily teachers. Today, some of the most politically active academics, some of them radical extremists, come from departments of ethnic and gender studies.

There were several other related changes. Because minority students were under-represented, universities ‘solved’ the problem by including ethnic criteria in admissions decisions (affirmative action) or going to an open admissions model, in which any high school graduate from a given area who applied would be admitted regardless of grades and test scores (one highly controversial example was the City University of New York).

Sometimes administrators and faculty accepted these changes because they were ideologically in agreement with them, but in many other cases they did so out of fear of violent disruptions if they did not meet the non-negotiable demands of student activists. The success of the politics of fear was in itself a lesson for students.

Also at the same time, the combination of increased admissions of students that were not prepared for traditional university-level academic work, fashionable educational theories which saw grades and competition as destructive to learning, as well as the non-judgmental atmosphere of the time, led to grade inflation. Suddenly, the average grade in most non-STEM courses became a B+ or A- instead of a C, and no one who could drag his or her body to class got less than a passing grade.

When I started college in 1960, it was understood that students who couldn’t meet academic standards would be kicked out, and they were. By the end of the decade, the only real requirement for graduation was attendance.

So what has come out of the post-sixties American system of higher education? Here is a list:

  • Indoctrinated students, taught factually incorrect and politically biased material by activist professors
  • Students unable to distinguish between academic studies and political polemics
  • The rise of identity politics, in which political decisions are based on race or ethnicity
  • Postmodernism, in which truth itself is subordinate to identity
  • Laziness and lack of perseverance
  • The belief that the best way to achieve political goals is by violence or threats of violence
  • A general belief that success is coming to you and doesn’t need to be earned
  • A lack of respect for the norms of a free society, especially freedom of expression

Barack Obama is a product of this system and was elected by products of it. His anti-Western bias and intellectual laziness come directly from his academic mentors, such as Edward Said. His election was a triumph of identity politics.

There has been little improvement since the 1960s. Recently, the values of democracy and free speech have come under attack on campuses allegedly to protect tender students from disturbing ‘triggers’ and providing them ‘safe spaces’ to avoid ideas that might make them feel threatened. Administrators and faculty, who by now are mostly baby boomers and younger, have responded in the most craven way possible.

In some cases students have been allowed to give free reign to brutal fascism without even having to come up with excuses. For example, on several campuses, anti-Israel students have disrupted lectures or classes by Israeli officials, pro-Israelis or even left-wing Israelis who criticize government policy, simply because they are Israelis. Faculty members that are even slightly pro-Israel have been hounded off campus and given no support by their administrations.

When they graduate and take actual jobs, the former students begin the maturation process that was delayed by their four or more years at the university (the Israeli custom of military service before university studies is far superior in this respect, despite a similarly politicized faculty). If they work in private industry, they might even be forced to take responsibility for the success – not just the attempt – of their endeavors, although this is by no means guaranteed. Many never take responsibility for anything, not at work and not in their private lives.

The changes that began in the 1960s and 70s molded the generation of Americans, led and exemplified by Barack Obama, whose members are now presiding over America’s abdication of its world leadership role. They are the products of its elite universities, holding important positions in government, media, nonprofits and academia.

Judging by the ideological climate on campuses today, the next few years promise to be even worse. The leading indicators tell us so.

Posted in Academia, American politics | 4 Comments