Israel has been in crisis mode for two weeks, waiting for a promised attack from Iran. At the same time, the Biden-Harris administration is trying to force Israel to accept a cease-fire agreement with Hamas. How are these things related?
The US administration is heavily invested in stopping the Gaza war and preventing Israel from obtaining full security control over Gaza both for domestic political reasons, and in order to advance its long-term goal of unifying the Palestinian territories under the control of single authority that can be a candidate for statehood.
The US has no leverage over Hamas, so the approach is to apply pressure to Israel, its client state, and to Iran, which is concerned that the US does not interfere with its progress toward nuclear weapons, which is currently at an advanced stage.
Pressure on Israel is multifaceted, including both carrots and sticks. The carrots are promises of future military aid and protection against attacks from Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. The sticks include slowdowns in delivery of promised munitions and threats to abandon Israel in the event that the war blows up into a major regional conflict. There is also the continuing political activity against PM Netanyahu, including various forms of support for his domestic opponents.
To Iran, the administration promises further sanctions relief and protection against a possible Israeli attack on her nuclear facilities.
At this point, the US has warned the Iranian regime against carrying out its planned revenge attack against Israel or allowing its various proxies, especially Hezbollah, from doing anything that might cause Israel to abandon the negotiations for a cease-fire deal. It has moved military assets into the region to back this up. The Iranians seem to have accepted the American demand. It is in their interest to avoid a confrontation with Israel now, before their nuclear umbrella unfolds, and while Israel is at peak readiness. In addition, the likely cease-fire arrangements will constitute a victory for the Iranian-led “axis of resistance.”
Although the precise terms of the latest deal as proposed by the Americans, Qatar, and Egypt are not public, we know that the first stage will include return of only some hostages (not including soldiers and possibly other males), a cease-fire of about six weeks, and a release of a number of Hamas terrorists in Israeli prisons. Issues in dispute include whether Israel will keep forces on the border between Gaza and Egypt, in the “Netzarim corridor” that separates the northern and southern parts of the Gaza strip, and in a security zone on the Gazan side of the border with Israel. The number and identity of the terrorists to be released in return for hostages is also an issue, and where they will be released. Hamas demands include that no Israeli forces may remain anywhere in Gaza, that the cease-fire will be extended as long as negotiations continue, and that the released prisoners include some of the most dangerous terrorists. Hamas also is demanding international aid to rebuild (in effect, to reconstitute itself as a military force).
Among the consequences of any agreement that even comes close to meeting Hamas’ conditions will be that Hamas remains in power, and strengthens itself in Palestinian politics. Terrorism in the territories and in the rest of the country can be expected to increase with the release of prisoners; and the international investment and presence in Gaza will deter Israel from periodically “mowing the grass” in Gaza. Israeli residents of the western Negev will soon face renewed threats from Gaza in the form of rocket fire and even incursions.
It is probable that only a mass release of thousands of convicted terrorists will bring home the male prisoners and soldiers that remain alive. It’s hard to imagine the chaos that this would bring. In the area of information warfare, the survival of Hamas will be presented (not incorrectly) as a massive victory and will encourage the other members of Iran’s “axis of resistance.”
In the next few days, the Israeli government will have to decide whether to take the deal that is being demanded by the US and by the opponents of PM Netanyahu. Israelis are being told by their media that this will “bring the hostages home” and end the fighting in the north as well as in Gaza. In fact, it will bring fewer than half of the hostages home. Iran and Hezbollah will not be deterred from continuing their attacks in the north; and it’s likely that American diplomacy will be brought to bear to protect them from Israel as well. The tens of thousands of Israelis that are internal refugees today from the north and south will not be able to safely return to their homes.
It’s true that two right-wing parties that are part of Netanyahu’s coalition have threatened to quit if the government agrees to a disadvantageous deal. Unfortunately the result of this would only be that the Opposition will support the deal and it will pass. Netanyahu’s coalition will be castrated and elections will soon follow.
Those in Israel who see the removal of Netanyahu as PM as a higher priority than the defeat of her enemies are idiots at best and traitors at worst. Our future here depends on our ability to stand up to American pressure, to defeat Hamas and keep security control of Gaza, and to successfully prosecute the coming war against Iran and her proxies. No political objective is more important than this.
