One Choice: Fight to Win

Posted on August 26, 2024 by Victor Rosenthal

Yesterday Israel preempted a potentially disastrous attack by Hezbollah on the center of the country. Thirty minutes before launch time, our aircraft destroyed literally thousands of launchers, rockets, and drones that were aimed at various targets including IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv and sensitive installations in the North.

Despite being an impressive technical and tactical achievement, it does not herald a new, more aggressive Israeli military policy. A column in the Israel Hayom newspaper this morning was titled “Preemptive operation, not preemptive attack,” and that sums it up. The 100 aircraft that were involved were simply a more elaborate and expensive Iron Dome. Admittedly the enemy lost more assets than the rockets and drones it had planned to use; launchers and installations were also destroyed. But the objective of the operation was entirely defensive. Great care was taken to ensure that it would be seen as a “legitimate” response to aggression. Israel waited until just before Hezbollah was expected to fire, and the attack was limited to southern Lebanon. As is always the case when we play pure defense, the enemy has learned lessons and will try again.

It was telling that Israel and the US both indicated that the US knew about it in advance, and that the attack was “fully coordinated” with the US. It’s well known that the US forbids Israel to preemptively attack its enemies, so it was important to present it as limited and “intended to prevent escalation.” But it should be noted that Hezbollah did succeed to launch some 300 weapons at the northern part of Israel, from which tens of thousands of citizens have become refugees. The defensive strike still did not enable them to return home. No purely defensive operation can.

American policy continues to have as its top objective the prevention of escalation. The pressure to reach a cease-fire agreement with Hamas continues at a high level. Although they are often presented as “hostage return” deals, no proposal has been seriously considered that allows more than a minority of the living hostages in the hands of Hamas to return. The Americans have made it clear that they intend for any temporary cease-fire to become permanent, or at least extended; and this implies the continued rule of Hamas and the abandonment of more than half of the hostages.

Israel cannot allow a situation to continue in which large numbers of her citizens from both the northern and southern parts of the country have been driven from their homes and can’t return for fear of rocket attacks and 7 October-style invasions. Essentially, a third of our country has been occupied by our enemies since 7 October. This is the status quo that American-brokered diplomatic “solutions” will perpetuate.

American forces have been sent to the region to prevent escalation by either side while they pursue diplomatic initiatives. But today Israeli deterrence is at its lowest point in years, and any American-brokered compromises with Hamas, Hezbollah, or Iran, will be disastrous to us.

If the Democrats win the US presidency, it’s expected that the pro-Iranian policy begun under Obama will gather steam. The Iranian regime is not sitting idly by, but is galloping toward the finish line in developing its nuclear umbrella. Israel can’t afford to wait and hope for a more friendly administration next January, which may or may not materialize.

Israel lost her way strategically at some point, when her military leadership buckled under American pressure, abandoned Ben Gurion’s philosophy of taking the war to her enemies, and began to fight, as Gadi Taub said, “with a shield but without a sword.” We have paid a huge price for this, and it’s not sustainable. Now we are at the point at which we have no choice but to fight to win.

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The “Villa in the Jungle” is Unsustainable.

Posted on August 24, 2024 by Victor Rosenthal

Western elites would like to live in a society based on a derivative of Christian morality, even though most of them have left Christianity behind. They believe that all human beings must be given the same basic rights simply by virtue of being human. They hate violence but believe it should be treated with understanding, and criminal behavior with rehabilitation at best and isolation at worst. For them, revenge is an atavistic act that has no place in civilized society. Honor is something that one pays lip service to, but gaining or losing it has no real consequences. Religion is a private matter that must be subservient to secular authority. Government is based on consent. They aspire to a world run according to these principles, governed by impartial international law and democratic institutions to enforce it. They believe that these values are so obviously superior that social evolution will ultimately bring them to infuse the world, and that opposing ideologies are bound to disappear.

Until 7 October 2023 many Israelis shared this view. They understood that their neighbors did not, but believed that in the fullness of time, if Israel showed restraint and was prepared to compromise, they would see that peace was preferable to war and mutually beneficial.

But the idea of global social progress toward Western norms is a myth and always has been. October 7 was a massive shock to Israelis, an even stronger one than post-Oslo terrorism and the Second Intifada. And finally there seems to be the beginning of a change in consciousness here. The “conseptzia” that it was possible to buy off our enemies with promises of economic prosperity (a huge insult to them, by the way) has finally lost currency. The idea that only the ideologues of Hamas or the PLO want to destroy us, while the majority of “ordinary Palestinians” just desire economic and physical security, has exploded like their rockets and RPGs. Israelis are finally beginning to understand that it requires a different outlook to defend a villa in the jungle than a cottage in Switzerland.

Since before the beginning of the state, Jews here have understood that they live in the Middle East, not the Alps. Military preparedness has been a given. But now the average Israeli is coming to understand that a psychological or spiritual change is also needed. A post-Christian European morality is detrimental to survival here.

Just one example should make this clear. Israel is holding thousands of Palestinian terrorists in its prisons, many of them murderers and even mass murderers. Some of them are serving multiple life sentences. But our prisons try to meet international (i.e., post-Christian European) standards, and convicts are treated relatively well, allowed to govern themselves, given adequate food, and so on. Their families receive regular stipends from the Palestinian Authority, money which comes to the PA from various international donors, particularly the US (in violation of US law).

Most importantly, the “life sentences” last only until the next “prisoner exchange,” or rather, the next time Israel is extorted to trade terrorists for hostages. Both Ahlam Tamimi, the mastermind of the 2001 Sbarro Pizza bombing in which 15 Jews were murdered, and Yahya Sinwar, the architect of October 7, were released from prison in 2011, two among 1027 prisoners freed in exchange for one Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit.

Any day now we are expecting that a similar, probably even larger, release of prisoners will be announced, in return for a few of the hostages in the hands of Hamas. Like a rupturing tumor that spreads its cancerous cells throughout the body, these creatures will flock to reconstitute Hamas and other terror groups throughout the land, rendering the sacrifices of our soldiers and police to apprehended them null and void.

To survive in the Middle East we have to be, in some ways, Middle Eastern. And Middle Easterners don’t suffer terrorist murderers to live, much less treat them kindly and release masses of them every few years.

Most ordinary Israelis get this now, and even a few of our politicians and generals. But most of the media, the legal and academic establishments, and a hard core of fanatics for whom deposing the Prime Minister is more important than the survival of the state, are still attending the moral garden party in the villa. The Israeli media especially are guilty of demanding a virtual surrender to Hamas in return for a handful of their hostages.

Most of the world, probably including the Western heads of state that publicly demand it, knows that this is stupid. The world, as a matter of fact, does not act according to the post-Christian moral system; the majority of UN members don’t even pay lip service to it. And yet, Israel is expected to be a “light unto nations” according to a foreign concept of morality espoused by countries like the USA, which has a third of a billion inhabitants and is protected from invasion by two oceans1.

Our approach must change. We can’t continue to be a “villa,” an isolated outpost of the West, but we must become part of the Middle East. I am not saying we should become like the Arabs, but there is a Jewish tradition that predates Hellenism and the diaspora that can serve as a model.

The ancient Hebrews fought the Canaanites without mercy. There was no possibility of a two-state solution; for one tribe to live here, the others had to go. When Amalek attacked the people of Israel on their way to their land, bribing them to stop murdering us was not considered. I would not argue that Israel should follow the Torah as a guide to action. It wouldn’t convince those who don’t believe, and those who do already agree with me.

But you could do worse if you are looking for advice about how to possess and occupy the Land of Israel, and how to deal with implacable enemies.
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1But which is nevertheless being destroyed from within thanks to its adherence to these values.

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Winning the World’s Hearts and Minds

Posted on August 21, 2024 by Victor Rosenthal

Israel is losing (some even say she has already irrevocably lost) the information war that is being waged in parallel with the kinetic one that she has been engaged in since 1948, but especially since 7 October 2023. The usual suggestions are technical: spend more money, react more quickly to enemy propaganda, utilize social media more effectively, and so on. All of these are worth doing, but there is one factor that is even more important than all of them together, and it is both simpler and more difficult. There are four paradoxes that can be found in our situation that expose it.

The Paradox of 7 October

On that day, Israel was attacked in the most atavistic, brutal and vicious way that can be imagined. Civilians were murdered, raped, sadistically tortured, and carried off to indefinite captivity under subhuman conditions. Their homes were looted and burned. It was war as practiced before the advent of civilization. It was the greatest mass murder of Jews since the Holocaust.

And yet, although there were many expressions of sympathy, both from people in general and from governments and international organizations, there was also an explosion of hatred for Israel as a nation and for Jews as individuals. Demonstrations were held around the world expressing support for the attackers, and incidents of Jew-hatred – beatings of Jews, anti-Jewish graffiti, attacks on Jewish-owned businesses, and so on spiked. How is this to be understood?

One answer is that people were primed by a decades-long campaign by the Soviet Union, both in the West and the Third World, to use anti-Zionism as a propaganda tool. The Soviets took advantage of the sensitivity that had developed in the West after (ironically) the racist persecution of Jews by the Nazis, and of the general recognition of the evils of the Western colonial empires. At the same time in America, people began to comprehend the horrors of slavery, Jim Crow, and the genocide of Native Americans. The struggle of the Jews for self-determination in their historic homeland was perversely portrayed as racism, colonialism, and now even genocide. The Palestinian Arabs, who were in fact invaders and migrants, were portrayed as an oppressed and colonized indigenous people. This inversion of reality, this “big lie,” was fed with a constant tsunami of propaganda that overwhelmed anemic Israeli attempts to refute or counteract it. The lies have always gone halfway around the world before the truth got its pants on.

Since the fall of the USSR, the campaign has been taken up by the Arabs, Iranians, and international Left who see Israel as an outpost of the hated USA.

The anti-Israel campaign has been disingenuously claimed to be “only anti-Zionist” and not anti-Jewish. But underneath the surface the message has been transmitted clearly and distinctly, and has triggered the closeted anti-Jewish hatreds that have been around at least since the year zero. It is not possible today to go back and undo this.

The way anti-Israel and anti-Jewish propaganda has been deployed in support of the desired genocide of the Jewish people (nothing less) is a triumph of social engineering. Its effectiveness is shown by the combination of murder and defamation that characterized 7 October.

The Paradox of Holocaust Education

In planning a response to anti-Jewish propaganda it’s necessary to consider the attempts to attack the anti-Jewish memes – the prejudices, stereotypes, conspiracy theories, and so on – that were supposed to have caused the Holocaust. One response has been to educate people by presenting the historical facts. Any normal person who knew the true dimensions of the horror perpetrated by the Nazis would reject the patterns of thought that were behind it and shun anyone trying to promulgate them, it was reasoned.

Much money and resources have gone into the building of museums, the development of curricula and materials, and the hiring of experts. And yet this enterprise has failed. It has been met with denial. It has aroused resentment, as Jews are accused of trying to “monopolize oppression,” or of using their own experience as an excuse to persecute others (sometimes at the same time as the Jewish experience is denied). Perversely, the very horror of the Holocaust is titillating to Jew-haters who often admire Hitler, collect Nazi regalia, and so on. Extreme Jew-haters see the Holocaust as something to be repeated rather than condemned.

The Paradox of Sympathy

This gives us a clue to the more general problem of defamation of Israel and Jews. As Jonathan Haidt argues persuasively, humans are primarily motivated by their emotions, even when they believe that they are making decisions on a rational basis. The “reasoning” is really after-the-fact rationalization of choices driven by their feelings. These feelings are often below the surface of consciousness, but they are dominant in a person’s decision-making.

These emotional responses have developed in humans after millennia of biological and cultural evolution. They vary to some extent between cultures (which leads to interesting questions about conflicts between Western and non-Western cultures), but there are also aspects that are universal. One of these is sympathy for an injured person. Paradoxically, there is also an opposite emotion of revulsion. The impulse to despise, to expel, or to flee from a defective or persecuted individual tends to favor survival of an individual or a culture, and so it is strengthened by evolution. We see this tendency among children where a bully that attacks a weak or “different” child is often joined by others.

Thus when a group is mass-murdered, along with sympathy for the victims there is also a tendency to side with the murderers. There is a feeling of safety in the face of horror that comes from the knowledge that one is set apart from the victims, that one is on the other side.

The Paradox of Strength

Another evolutionary trait is an attraction to the stronger side in any conflict. Everybody loves a winner, or as Osama bin Laden said, the “strong horse.” It’s also true that people despise a loser. And before a contest is decided, people choose whom to support based on the perceived strength of each opponent.

Yet in Western cultures people think this feeling should be suppressed. There is a belief that rational considerations and morality should override brute strength in determining the outcome of a confrontation, which results in conflicting emotions (this is one of the reasons they do so poorly when negotiating with Middle Easterners, who see “rational” willingness to compromise as weakness). Strength and honor are of primary concern in the Middle East, but even toward the West, we gain allies by demonstrating strength.

How to Win the Information War

What are the practical lessons for Israel in all this? How can she use the consequences of human and societal evolution to help her overcome the massive propaganda assault, both in the West and in the Middle East? I will offer some suggestions for how she can behave for the best psychological effect. Note that I said “behave,” and not just talk. Actions speak louder than words, especially in the Middle East. And these actions will help bring success in the physical arena as well.

1. Win the War in Gaza

We were humiliated and wounded – from a psychological point of view, critically – on 7 October. We cannot allow Hamas to remain in power and its leaders to remain alive. If we do, we will be marked as victims, in other words, targets. In the Middle East, deterrence comes from honor. If we lose our honor, everything we have is open for the taking.

2. Win the War in the North

Tens of thousands of Israelis have been forced to vacate their homes in fear of bombardment and invasion by Hezbollah. In effect we have allowed our land to become occupied. Again this is a massive loss of honor and must be corrected.

3. Our Lives are More Important Than Theirs

Israel lives in fear of the US and the hostile “international community” of anti-Israel NGOs and institutions, and goes to extreme lengths to warn civilians before attacking military targets, and to allow humanitarian aid to be provided to enemy populations. These policies have made it possible for Egypt to refuse to accept refugees from Gaza, and for Hamas to prolong the conflict, arguably resulting in more civilian suffering than less. Either way, they signify weakness. Get it over with.

4. Return to an Offensive Strategy

Israeli strategy, as propounded by David Ben Gurion, was to take the war to the enemy, fight on his territory, and finish wars quickly. But since Israel has allowed the US to dominate its military policy, she has moved to adopting a defensive posture. Huge amounts of money are spent on weapons like Iron Dome to bat away enemy rockets. This is economically unsustainable, since offensive weapons are much cheaper. It invites the enemy to learn lessons and try again. And from a psychological standpoint, it normalizes shooting at Jews. How can we permit that to become acceptable?

5. Responses Should Always be Disproportionate

Israel’s response should always be several times stronger than our enemies’ provocations. The fact that we responded to an attack from Iran by hundreds of missiles and drones by bombing a radar station was embarrassing, even if it was a demonstration of our capabilities. We may wish to demonstrate capabilities, but we must also demonstrate the will to fight. Deterrence means making them afraid to attack us. Power means hitting back at bullies, not trying to push them away or running from them.

6. Treat the Conflict as Zero-Sum (it is)

Do not look for win-win situations; there aren’t any. Either the Land of Israel will be ruled and populated by Jews, or by Arabs. Americans love the idea that Hamas or the PLO can put aside their desire to destroy Israel if only given an opportunity to develop a prosperous state. Nothing could be more wrong. This is a tribal conflict over land, and tribalism is another evolutionary “built-in.” When Israel goes along with these fantasies, she broadcasts weakness.

7. Get Revenge When Appropriate

Implement the death penalty for terrorist murder. This has the practical benefit of removing a motive for hostage-taking. The modern position is that revenge is atavistic and wrong. But it satisfies a deep need as well as sending a necessary message.

Conclusion

Acting according to the post-WWII Western conception of moral national behavior exposes Israel to depredations by its enemies who do not care about Western morality. At the same time, the climate of opinion that has developed over decades is such that the mechanisms and institutions that might protect a Western state don’t apply to Israel. She has little to lose by changing her behavior to become more aggressive, and aspiring to respect and even fear. Overall this will improve her potential to gain allies and deter enemies.

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Israel Waits on the Edge of War

Posted on August 18, 2024 by Victor Rosenthal

Israel has been in crisis mode for two weeks, waiting for a promised attack from Iran. At the same time, the Biden-Harris administration is trying to force Israel to accept a cease-fire agreement with Hamas. How are these things related?

The US administration is heavily invested in stopping the Gaza war and preventing Israel from obtaining full security control over Gaza both for domestic political reasons, and in order to advance its long-term goal of unifying the Palestinian territories under the control of single authority that can be a candidate for statehood.

The US has no leverage over Hamas, so the approach is to apply pressure to Israel, its client state, and to Iran, which is concerned that the US does not interfere with its progress toward nuclear weapons, which is currently at an advanced stage.

Pressure on Israel is multifaceted, including both carrots and sticks. The carrots are promises of future military aid and protection against attacks from Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. The sticks include slowdowns in delivery of promised munitions and threats to abandon Israel in the event that the war blows up into a major regional conflict. There is also the continuing political activity against PM Netanyahu, including various forms of support for his domestic opponents.

To Iran, the administration promises further sanctions relief and protection against a possible Israeli attack on her nuclear facilities.

At this point, the US has warned the Iranian regime against carrying out its planned revenge attack against Israel or allowing its various proxies, especially Hezbollah, from doing anything that might cause Israel to abandon the negotiations for a cease-fire deal. It has moved military assets into the region to back this up. The Iranians seem to have accepted the American demand. It is in their interest to avoid a confrontation with Israel now, before their nuclear umbrella unfolds, and while Israel is at peak readiness. In addition, the likely cease-fire arrangements will constitute a victory for the Iranian-led “axis of resistance.”

Although the precise terms of the latest deal as proposed by the Americans, Qatar, and Egypt are not public, we know that the first stage will include return of only some hostages (not including soldiers and possibly other males), a cease-fire of about six weeks, and a release of a number of Hamas terrorists in Israeli prisons. Issues in dispute include whether Israel will keep forces on the border between Gaza and Egypt, in the “Netzarim corridor” that separates the northern and southern parts of the Gaza strip, and in a security zone on the Gazan side of the border with Israel. The number and identity of the terrorists to be released in return for hostages is also an issue, and where they will be released. Hamas demands include that no Israeli forces may remain anywhere in Gaza, that the cease-fire will be extended as long as negotiations continue, and that the released prisoners include some of the most dangerous terrorists. Hamas also is demanding international aid to rebuild (in effect, to reconstitute itself as a military force).

Among the consequences of any agreement that even comes close to meeting Hamas’ conditions will be that Hamas remains in power, and strengthens itself in Palestinian politics. Terrorism in the territories and in the rest of the country can be expected to increase with the release of prisoners; and the international investment and presence in Gaza will deter Israel from periodically “mowing the grass” in Gaza. Israeli residents of the western Negev will soon face renewed threats from Gaza in the form of rocket fire and even incursions.

It is probable that only a mass release of thousands of convicted terrorists will bring home the male prisoners and soldiers that remain alive. It’s hard to imagine the chaos that this would bring. In the area of information warfare, the survival of Hamas will be presented (not incorrectly) as a massive victory and will encourage the other members of Iran’s “axis of resistance.”

In the next few days, the Israeli government will have to decide whether to take the deal that is being demanded by the US and by the opponents of PM Netanyahu. Israelis are being told by their media that this will “bring the hostages home” and end the fighting in the north as well as in Gaza. In fact, it will bring fewer than half of the hostages home. Iran and Hezbollah will not be deterred from continuing their attacks in the north; and it’s likely that American diplomacy will be brought to bear to protect them from Israel as well. The tens of thousands of Israelis that are internal refugees today from the north and south will not be able to safely return to their homes.

It’s true that two right-wing parties that are part of Netanyahu’s coalition have threatened to quit if the government agrees to a disadvantageous deal. Unfortunately the result of this would only be that the Opposition will support the deal and it will pass. Netanyahu’s coalition will be castrated and elections will soon follow.

Those in Israel who see the removal of Netanyahu as PM as a higher priority than the defeat of her enemies are idiots at best and traitors at worst. Our future here depends on our ability to stand up to American pressure, to defeat Hamas and keep security control of Gaza, and to successfully prosecute the coming war against Iran and her proxies. No political objective is more important than this.

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Do We Have an Ally in America? Or Something Else?

Posted on August 13, 2024 by Victor Rosenthal

“You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.” – Rahm Emanuel

Emanuel was Chief of Staff for Barack Obama in 2009-10, and his maxim hasn’t been forgotten by the former Obama administration staffers that are making US policy toward Israel and the Middle East today. They have passionately embraced it as Israel faces what is probably her greatest crisis since 1973 (arguably 1948), in which she has been attacked simultaneously from seven fronts: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Judea/Samaria, Yemen, Iran, and Iraq.

Since the traumatic massacre and hostage-taking of 7 October 2023, the Americans have attempted to bend the arc of events toward the goals set out in Obama’s Cairo speech in 2009 and the Baker/Hamilton report of 2006: a unified Palestinian state in Judea, Samaria, and Gaza; the re-division of Jerusalem, the return of the Golan Heights to Syria, and the elevation of Iran to the role of regional hegemon.

The publicly-stated objective of this exercise is to bring peace to the region by ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and placing Iran in the role of policeman to suppress the extremist Sunni forces in Iraq and Syria that express themselves in the form of ISIS (for example). This will theoretically enable the US to disengage from the region, immunize herself from terrorism emanating from it, and turn her attention toward her true rival, China.

It’s not clear if the authors of this doctrine, particularly Ben Rhodes, a co-author of the Iraq Study Group report and the writer of Obama’s Cairo speech, intend that a byproduct of it would be to greatly empower the enemies of Israel and even bring about the end of the Jewish state. But either they don’t understand that the tribal and religious aspirations of the Palestinian Arabs will never be assuaged by the possession of only part of what they believe is their birthright, or they do understand and fully support them. Similarly, they either fail to take seriously or approve of Iran’s stated desire to “wipe Israel off the map.”

From a strictly American point of view, the policy is defective and dangerous. The theocratic and oppressive Iranian regime is not kidding when it displays banners calling for “Death to America,” the “Great Satan.” The Obama/Rhodes plan which legitimizes Iran becoming a nuclear-armed power – something that is expected at any moment – could not be more irresponsible, especially considering the penetration of Iran’s terrorist proxy organization Hezbollah into South and Central America and the open southern border of the US.

Nevertheless, the Biden/Harris administration seems to have embraced this policy, and its actions in response to Israel’s crisis since 7 October bear that out. US intelligence agencies are aware that Hamas’ claims of disproportionate civilian casualties in Gaza are false. However US officials, sometimes including the president, continue to take them at face value in their public statements, and have used this as an excuse to hold up the delivery of weapons to Israel. Despite statements to the contrary, it’s not just 2000 pound bombs that are being withheld, but numerous items – including JDAM kits, needed to convert ‘dumb’ bombs to munitions that can be precisely targeted. Clearly, if the motivation were to reduce collateral damage, then the delivery of JDAMs would be expedited, not delayed.

But 2000-pound bombs with JDAM kits would be especially useful if Israel chose to attack the Iranian nuclear facilities. And other weapons and systems that would be critical to that mission have also been delayed. For example, KC-46A air tankers, which would be used to refuel planes on their way to Iran, were contracted for in 2020, but after several delays are now expected in May 2025.

Since 7 October the US administration has been pressuring Israel to adopt a “day after” plan that places a “reformed” Palestinian Authority in charge of Gaza. The administration prevented the IDF from entering Rafiah for several weeks, claiming that it would take four months to remove the civilian population to safety; this was ultimately accomplished in two weeks. Control of Rafiah, which is located on the border between Gaza and Egypt, is essential to cut off the flow of weapons and supplies to Hamas. It has also been falsely claimed that Israel is preventing the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, that there is widespread starvation, and so on. These accusations have been used to gain leverage to force Israel to accept a cease-fire deal that would allow some of the hostages held by Hamas to go home, but would make it impossible for Israel to control the governance of Gaza, and which would result in Hamas reconstituting its military and civil apparatus. In essence, the deal the US wants is our surrender.

The US believes, correctly, that Israel’s PM, Binyamin Netanyahu, is an obstacle to the attainment of their objectives, both in the Israeli-Palestinian arena and toward Iran. Netanyahu has insisted that Israel retain security control of Gaza for at least a time after the war; that means control of the border between Gaza and Egypt, the “Netzarim Corridor” that divides the northern and southern parts of the Strip, and a 1 km wide security zone along the border between Gaza and Israel. Hamas will not accept these terms, and so the Americans and Netanyahu’s domestic opponents blame him for the lack of a deal.

The Obama/Rhodes circle that is calling the shots in the US has had a personal animus against Netanyahu since the beginning of the Obama administration, which was exacerbated when he spoke against the Iran nuclear deal to a joint session of the US Congress in 2015. Since then it has supported his political opponents in multiple ways.

More recently, the Biden/Harris administration has begun a campaign of placing economic sanctions on Israelis (some of whom are American citizens and some who are not) for participation in or support of alleged mistreatment of Palestinians. As Michael Doran explains, the purpose is to “create a climate of controversy around Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition partners.” Sanctions can apply to any entity that does business with a sanctioned individual, so even if he or she has no assets in the US, a target can be cut off from employment or their Israeli bank account. The punishment of Israeli nationals by a foreign power without due process is an abuse of our sovereignty, and the international imposition of sanctions on ordinary citizens is unprecedented.

As we await a coordinated attack from Iran, Hezbollah, and perhaps the Houthis in Yemen, the terrorists of Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the PA, and the Iranian-controlled militias in Iraq and Syria, ten months after the most murderous attack on Jews since the Holocaust, and after ten months of outrageous lies and antisemitic vilification by international institutions and the world media, we wonder if we really have an ally in the US, or something else.

In April of this year Iran launched hundreds of drones and ballistic and cruise missiles at Israel. With the help of the US and a few other countries and the expenditure of a billion dollars in defensive operations, Israel destroyed most of them. But the intent behind those tons of explosives thrown at us was murderous. The response from Israel should have been painful enough to ensure that the Iranian regime would never dare try it again. Instead, we were told by the Americans that if we want their support, only a symbolic gesture would be permitted. So we bombed a radar station. And now here we are again.

The whole thing seems orchestrated. The US has sent forces to the region, in part to protect us, but also to ensure that everything goes according to plan. Iran will be allowed to attack and hurt us enough to cause us to sign on the dotted line for a general cease-fire, one that will lead to the Palestinian state that the Americans want so badly. We will be allowed to hit back – symbolically. We will especially not be allowed to hit Iranian nuclear installations. Netanyahu, hated by the Left, will now lose any support he has from the Right.

Biden/Harris will say they have brought peace to the Middle East. But Israel will face a resurgent Hamas, a Hezbollah more dangerous than ever, a terror state next door to Tel Aviv, and a nuclear Iran. This is a recipe for even more war, and it’s not at all clear that we can continue to prevail.

Posted in Iran, Israel and Palestinian Arabs, US-Israel Relations, War | 2 Comments

How to End the New War of Attrition

Posted on July 30, 2024 by Victor Rosenthal

Welcome to that familiar location, the one between a rock and a hard place.

Since the day after the invasion and massacre on 7 October, Hezbollah has been waging a successful war of attrition against Israel. More than 80,000 Israelis have been displaced from their homes on the northern border, and more than 50 have been killed by rockets and antitank weapons. Border towns and kibbutzim have become wastelands. Homes and other structures have been destroyed, and fields burned.

Israel has responded in a carefully measured, tit-for-tat fashion which, as anyone familiar with the Middle East knows, sends a message of weakness and an invitation for further depredation. There are three apparent reasons for this:

1. The IDF does not want to fight a two-front war.

2. Hezbollah has between 130,000 to 200,000 rockets, missiles, and drones that it can launch at Israel, some of them with precision guidance systems that can strike within a few meters of a target. The home front is expected to suffer thousands of deaths and massive destruction of property and infrastructure.

3. The American administration has told Israel that if it attacks Hezbollah preemptively, it will not support us (presumably with weapons deliveries or at the UN).

On 28 July, a Hezbollah rocket with a 50 kg warhead struck a soccer field and playground in Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights. 12 children and teenagers were killed and numerous others injured, some critically. There was an alert, but it came only a few seconds before the explosion, and the children did not have time to reach a nearby concrete shelter. One child was missing for a day, before it was determined that his body had been blown to bits.

Majdal Shams is the “capital” of the Golan Druze. The Druze mostly live in Lebanon, Syria, the Golan, and the Galilee region of Israel. They have a unique religion, and a tradition of loyalty to the states in which they live. They also have a military tradition, and Israeli Druze serve in the IDF and Border Patrol. They are considered among the best fighters and officers and have paid a high price in blood in Israel’s wars.

The entire region is watching to see how Israel will react to the murder of 12 children. Such an atrocity demands a disproportionate response. If the reaction is typical of the recent past, our enemies will know that the understanding that murdering Israeli civilians is normal behavior is still in effect. The Druze will know that Israel does not care about them or value their contributions to the state. After all, we hit the Houthis’ oil industry and port after they killed one Jew in Tel Aviv.

The Americans have already informed us that yes, we are allowed to retaliate, but no, it cannot be disproportionate. And we may not touch Beirut, where Hezbollah boss Hassan Nasrallah is holed up.

When we were invaded on 7 October, the Biden Administration expressed its horror at the massacre of 1200 Israelis and expressed its support. But in the following days it tried to delay or prevent a ground invasion of Gaza. Once the ground war started, it supported Egypt’s demand that not one Gazan would be allowed to cross the border; but at the same time it complained about civilian casualties in the Strip. Then it tried to prevent us from entering Rafiah and taking control of the border between Gaza and Egypt to cut off Hamas’ weapons supply. Even after we demonstrated that it was possible to move civilians out of the way, it continued to throttle our supply of ammunition, to “protect” them. The administration also delayed the delivery of “smart” munitions which enable precise strikes at military targets! All during the war it has pressed for a hostage deal on terms that would leave Hamas in control of Gaza. And it has encouraged the “bring them home at any price” movement in Israel, as well as the forces opposing PM Netanyahu, who wants to keep fighting. Following the philosophy of never allowing a crisis to go to waste, the Biden administration wishes to turn the “day after” the war into a “two-state solution” that would put most of Israel into jeopardy from 7 October-style invasions.

Many seem to have forgotten that on 13 April of this year, Iran launched a direct attack on Israel, launching more than 300 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones against us. Israel – with some help from the US and others – succeeded in shooting most of them down (at an estimated cost of $1 billion). But had a large number of them reached their targets, the destruction and death would have been beyond estimation. It was an attempt to destroy the fabric of our nation and demanded a suitable response. Instead, we bombed an Iranian air defense radar installation. We were told this would “send a message” to Iran. It did, but not the intended one. It informed them that it’s acceptable to shoot at Jews, and they should keep trying. After all, what do they have to lose?

The Majdal Shams attack cannot be allowed to go unavenged. We cannot afford to allow our deterrence to erode further. The wolves are circling. Yesterday, the little pisher of Turkey, Tayip Recip Erdoğan, threatened that he too could invade Israel. Why not? Everyone is doing it. But still more important: we cannot betray our Druze citizens (and those in the Golan who still hold Syrian citizenship but more and more are becoming Israelis). We owe them, and we need them.

There is little chance that we can make the Americans agree. I would like to think it is because they don’t understand the Middle East, and it’s partly that, but it’s also because the Democratic administration is still following the pro-Iranian policy established by Barack Obama. Nevertheless, we have no alternative but to do it anyway.

But what about the danger from Hezbollah’s arsenal? Many analysts think that Israel could not survive the full force of the blow it could inflict. Of course the state of Lebanon would also be bombed into the stone age, but the Iranian puppeteers are perfectly happy in sacrificing the hosts of their proxies if it will achieve their goal.

We are in a bad spot, but there is one strategy that might succeed: that is to strike a massive blow at the Iranian regime and Iran’s infrastructure, to cut off the head of the snake, so to speak. If this could be done quickly and effectively, Hezbollah would be left high and dry, and could be persuaded to avoid the mutual devastation that would result from all-out war with Israel.

Would it work? How would we do it? I am not a military expert. But I do know that we cannot continue along the road we are following today, because it leads only to destruction.

Posted in Israel and Palestinian Arabs, US-Israel Relations, War | 4 Comments

Now What?

Posted on July 12, 2024 by Victor Rosenthal

“…the great IDF, that was supposed to protect them, disappeared and left them alone against a satanic and bloodthirsty enemy that murdered, burned, raped, looted, and kidnapped for long hours almost without interference.” – Yoav Limor, Israel Hayom, 12 July 2024.

The real dimensions of Israel’s failure to provide for the most basic part of the social contract, to protect its citizens against attack, are only now becoming clear. But nine months after the disaster of 7 October 2023, one thing is undeniable:

Almost all of those in the government, the IDF, and all the security services who were responsible for the policies that made the invasion and massacre possible, who did not have adequate contingency plans, who ignored compelling intelligence information beforehand, and whose response was inexcusably slow and inadequate, still have their jobs.

Now the same people are negotiating a deal with the Hamas filth that will allow them to stay in control of Gaza, rebuild their capabilities, and do it again.

All of them, from the Prime Minister and the Chief of Staff down, have to go. They have proven themselves at best incompetent and at worst criminally negligent, and must not be allowed to continue to abandon our people to the monsters waiting on our borders.

The state’s top priority must be to destroy Hamas’ military capabilities and remove it from power. It must be possible for Israelis to return to their homes in the south of the country without fear. And we must face the horrible reality that this takes precedence over returning the remaining hostages.

I’m tired of hearing from our politicians that it is our “moral duty” to rescue (a few of!) the hostages by surrendering to Hamas. It isn’t – our actual duty is to face the truth, which is that the price of a deal is far too high and endangers the existence of the state. The only option is to increase the military pressure.

I understand the real constraints, including the policies of the Biden administration, the equally pressing need of the tens of thousands of Israelis that are displaced from their homes in the north, the capabilities of Hezbollah, and the Iranian nuclear project. And I understand the dangers posed by the Left, which wants to use the crisis to seize power against the will of the great majority of Jewish Israelis. But we cannot allow failed politicians and generals to continue to fail. This crisis is existential, and they have proven that they are not up to the job.

Unfortunately we don’t have the time it would take to have an election campaign and coalition negotiations. And even if the process produced a government (which is not at all certain), our broken system could easily result in one more corrupt and incompetent than the present one.

Now what?

Posted in Israeli Politics, War | 4 Comments

An Excess of Democracy

Posted on June 4, 2024 by Victor Rosenthal

The State of Israel is more endangered today than at any time since 1948, including 1973. She is tied down in Gaza while her enemies wait their turn in Lebanon, Syria, the PA, Yemen, Iraq, and Iran – which may already have nuclear weapons. An unprecedented campaign of antisemitic incitement is destroying popular support for her throughout the world, and government after government is punishing her by recognizing the “State of Palestine” on her territory. The more genocidal her enemies, the more she is falsely accused of genocide. Her decision to position herself as a satellite of the US has borne bitter fruit, as that country’s policies are increasingly decided by elements that want to see Israel disappear; at the same time, the enemies of the US treat her as an outpost of US power that must be eliminated.

Israel’s political, intelligence, and military elites have shown themselves incompetent. They failed to foresee, prevent, or even effectively react to the invasion of 7 October. They have turned the military successes of the war into what appears to be a surrender to all of Hamas’ demands.

Over the years they have projected an image of Israel as a punching bag rather than the proud and powerful nation that she is. Despite our nuclear-armed military, they have allowed Iran to encircle us with terrorist proxies and even to establish a deterrent force in Lebanon that we fear to challenge. They have allowed Iran itself to obtain nuclear weapons.

On 13 April 2024, Iran launched an attack against Israel that included hundreds of drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles, the largest such attack in military history. All but a few were intercepted by Israel with some help from the US and others; the cost of this defensive operation to Israel was estimated at more than $1 billion. Had the attack succeeded, there would have been great damage to military and infrastructure targets, as well as loss of life. Israel retaliated a few days later by destroying some radar installations in Iran. The weakness of Israel’s response was a result of US pressure and the deterrent effect of Iran’s Hezbollah proxy.

At home, our leaders have allowed the PA to systematically gobble up parts of Area C in Judea/Samaria that are supposed to be under full Israeli control by international treaty. They have allowed, and then legitimized, illegal Bedouin settlement in the Negev. They have allowed the flourishing of Arab crime syndicates in the Negev and Galilee, and in the Arab towns and mixed Arab-Jewish cities.

Tens of thousands of Israeli citizens have fled from their homes: in the south from fear of resurgent Hamas terrorism, and in the north from daily bombardment by Hezbollah with rockets and anti-tank weapons, which have laid waste to cities and towns in the area. As I write this, large fires started by Hezbollah rockets are burning in northern cities.

Our governments are ineffectual, paralyzed by arguments over issues like the judicial reform and the Haredi draft, beset by powerful lobbies and popular groups that are manipulated by political actors. The two largest minority populations, Israeli Arabs and Haredim, maintain autonomous “states” within our state, where the laws and informal understandings that govern the rest of the population don’t necessarily apply.

Many Israeli Arabs, with the notable exception of the Druze and a small number of Bedouins, do not accept the principle that Israel is a Jewish state, do not serve in the military, and in many cases avoid taxation and other responsibilities. Haredim refuse to serve in the military and maintain an educational system in which “secular” subjects like mathematics and modern Hebrew language are not taught.

Because of the war, reserve soldiers are now to serve 90 days a year, which is destructive to family life, jobs, and especially independent businesses. At the same time, tens of thousands of yeshiva students have been exempted from the draft. Attempts to change this have been met by demonstrations which block major roads, and threats by Haredi politicians to bring down the government. Israeli governments have been trying to find a successful compromise to enable the sharing of the security burden for decades without success.

***

What can be done? What must be done to preserve the Jewish state, prevent another Jewish dispersion, and restore Israel’s role as the protector of the Jewish communities of the diaspora? As always, there are short-term and long-term answers. Today our most critical concern must be the war in Gaza. As long as Hamas continues to be in control of the strip, we effectively lose a large chunk of our country that will remain uninhabitable, and the IDF will be tied down and unable to respond to other threats. Even more importantly, if Israel is defeated by the terror tactics of Hamas – and make no mistake, an agreement along the lines of the one announced last week by the US president will be understood by the entire world as a crushing defeat – our enemies on all fronts will bring us more 7 Octobers.

Hamas’ victory strategy depends on two major Israeli weaknesses: the public concern for the hostages (and the manipulation of that concern by political actors that oppose the government), and Israel’s susceptibility to American pressure.

The cruelty of Hamas and the situation of the hostages is tearing at the hearts of all Israelis. But barring a miracle, there is no solution that will bring them home at a price the nation can afford. We must say to their families: we cannot trade the Jewish state for your people. We must do everything that we can to save them, but we cannot surrender to our murderous enemy in order to do so. It’s delusional to think that we can accept a 6-week ceasefire (not to mention the other concessions demanded), given the pressure from America and the other fronts of the war, and then return to finish off Hamas. It will not happen.

The US administration has done and is continuing to do everything it can short of military intervention on the side of Hamas to prevent Israel from achieving a decisive victory. Israeli leaders must understand that we cannot win if we obey the directives from Washington. They must tell the Americans whatever they need to hear, but order the IDF to finish the job, to remove Hamas from power and destroy its military capability.

***

It is painful to write this, but I fear that our present government may be incapable of taking the actions required for the state to survive. Worse, the political structure of our state may be ill-adapted to survival in today’s Middle East.

I would sum up the problem by saying that Israel suffers from an excess of democracy. There are many things that are wonderful about a truly democratic state: in theory, it can behave justly toward individuals with diverse interests and needs. It is a way to align the policies of a country with the “general will” of the populace, in the words of Rousseau. Unfortunately there are some specific situations where democracy is sub-optimal.

One of them is a state of war. In wartime, decisions must be made that will favor victory but which will cause popular suffering, or suffering of influential groups. Such decisions often cannot be made democratically.1 An example is the question of whether Israel should accept a deal that will free some hostages, but also release many imprisoned terrorists and place restrictions on her conduct of the war.

Another problematic case is that of large permanent minorities who utilize democratic institutions like elections to pursue “identity politics” rather than issue-oriented ones. In Israel, in addition to the ethnic and religious divisions, we find entrenched ideological and personality-oriented subgroups. In 2019-21 they combined with our complicated electoral system to produce four parliamentary elections in a period of two years. The tension between the elected Knesset and the independent bureaucracy, which represents Israel’s former ruling elite, guarantees gridlock on important issues. In addition, the almost decade-long attempt to take down PM Netanyahu utilizing the judicial system, and supported by most of the media and the academic establishment, has been a distraction and strain on both sides.

Israel is both almost permanently at war, and blessed with large ethnic/religious minorities. Thus her aspiration to be a democratic state works against the possibility that she will have an effective government. And the challenges to being a tiny Jewish state in the Middle East absolutely require leadership that functions optimally.

Given the power relationships in our political society, it is unlikely that there is a smooth path – for example, a constitutional convention – to a new form of government. But the responsibility of the state to her citizens, and to the Jewish people as a whole, demands that she make this transition in any case, regardless of the disruption of normal life that it is likely to entail.
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1But didn’t the democracies defeat the Nazis in WWII? Actually, both Roosevelt and Churchill acted as virtual dictators. And Stalin…

Posted in Israeli Politics, War | 5 Comments